Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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633
FXUS63 KGLD 181802
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1202 PM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Upper ridge will build across the area today and Thursday ahead of
a slow moving upper low in the Great Basin. Expecting mostly sunny
and dry conditions with temperatures slightly below normal both
days. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days as
well, with northwest winds today of 20 to 30 mph and south winds
on Thursday of 25 to 35 mph. Relative humidity will drop to as low
as 20 percent both days.

Upper low will move into the southern Rockies Thursday night and
emerge onto the plains on Friday. Rain chances will begin Friday
morning and continue through the early weekend. Best chances for
rain will be Friday afternoon and Friday night. Models have
continued the trend of lower QPF totals, with generally between a
half and one inch (including Saturday). Leaned towards cooler side
of guidance for Friday temperatures, with highs mainly in the 40s
due to clouds and precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Main concern is exiting storm system early in the period with next
concern the chance of precipitation the beginning of next week.
Satellite continuing to show a highly amplified pattern from the
Pacific into the western Atlantic.

Still some wavering from the models in regards to the speed and
position details on incoming system. System is still not overland so
details on this system will probably continue to change. As has been
the case the Gfs has been the most consistent/changed the least from
run to run as it continues to be the furthest north and fastest.

Latest Ecmwf did slow and is further north from the previous run as
it continues to waver back and forth from more south to more north.
It remains in the middle of the pack. The Canadian is also slower
and further north from the previous run as it continues to be the
furthest south. WPC manual progs are more toward the slower and
further south. So considering latest trends, I did nudge up the
pops a little more Saturday and Saturday night.

For the rest of period, the models continue to have major
difficulties in resolving the flow pattern. Specifically they differ
on how amplified/far east they are with the trough/ridge/trough
pattern from the eastern Pacific into the center of the country.
There may or may not be a short wave or closed low depending on the
model in the center of the country. As a result I left alone the
pops the Forecaster Builder gave me from Monday to the end of the
period. Also left the other forecast parameters the FB gave me due
to these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Northwest winds will begin
to decline in the next hour or so, becoming light this evening.
During the night a surface ridge will move through, turning the
winds to the southwest.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ERRYK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL



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