Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
528 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are clear with
temperatures ranging mainly in the 50s w/ some locales east in the
lower to mid 60s still. Winds are variable 5-10 mph.

For today...with the exiting showers and thunderstorms...region
will begin to see amplified H5/H7 ridging build east off the
Rockies into the Plains...cresting over the area late
tonight...then east of the CWA on Saturday. Strong WAA will
accompany the passage of the upper ridge with 850 temps +27c to
+30c today...and +27c to +33c on Saturday. The result will be
daytime highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Looking for high
today in the upper 80s to mid 90s...peaking tomorrow w/ mid to
upper 90s. Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night upper 50s
thru the mid 60s...warmest east. Lee-side trough west on Saturday
and surface ridging to the east will provide a tight southerly
gradient with gusts nearing 20-30 mph...making hot conditions
Saturday afternoon even worse.

For Sunday and Sunday night...cutoff upper low moving into the
Rockies will interact with lee-side trough moving off the Front
Range. Ample instability to allow for thunderstorms development
for the afternoon/evening hours before tapering off. Strong to
severe potential exists for the area. For now though much of the
CWA remains in the general thunder category at the SPC w/ extreme
NW zones reaching into the southern edge of a Marginal Risk
area...with hail/wind threats. General SW flow aloft will keep
WAA over area. Highs Sunday will be "cooler" than Saturday...but
still ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows
Sunday mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018

Warmer weather with chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
is forecast for this period.

The upper level ridge will remain stationed over the southern CONUS
through next week.  Meanwhile short wave troughs will move around
the periphery of the ridge.  A couple of these short wave troughs
will be strong enough to push the ridge further south on Tuesday and
Wednesday.  This may give a brief break to the warm weather.

While there will be chance for rain until Thursday evening, the best
chances for rainfall will be Tuesday and Wednesday as stronger upper
level short wave troughs move through.  Models disagree with how far
east the dry line will be for this period, which will affect where
the CAPE will be.  Due to this discontinuity have low confidence in
determining when and where severe storms will occur at this time.
However would not be surprised if severe storms to occur, especially
Tuesday or Wednesday, since they are strongly favored for this time
of the year.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions expected for both taf sites with a SKC-FEW250 mix.
Winds for KGLD...W 5-10kts thru 17z then N around 10kts. By
21z...light/variable becoming S around 10kts by 05z Saturday.
Winds for KMCK...WNW 5-10kts thru 23z then N around 10kts. By 02z




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