Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Across the region this afternoon...skies are a psunny/msunny mix
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s up to the lower 60s.
Winds are light from the NNE with some periodic gusts in the 15-20
mph range.

Over the Central Plains this afternoon...the back edge of the
circulation from the exiting low is still slowly drifting ENE out of
the eastern most zones. The remaining low cloud that has developed
and overspread central and western portions of the CWA is resulting
from daytime heating effects and the nosing of a surface ridge
coming down from the north...keeping low level moisture in place.
Some of this cloud cover will dissipate at sunset.

Going into tonight...expected ridge to crest over the region sliding
east of the area during the day Monday. With low level moisture
remaining in place...will be going with some developing fog mainly
for eastern locales...which will be closest to the ridge axis going
into Monday morning before dissipating.

For Monday on thru Tuesday night...H5 ridge traversing the region
will keep WAA on SW flow into the area...with a lee-side trough
working off the Front Range. The result of this will have above
normal temps for the region with chances for some trw/rw. Focus for
the first round will occur over far western portions of the area
Monday night. Limited instability will keep severe potential low and
we are currently in the General category on SPC for this timeframe.

Second round will occur as this trough moves east into the Plains on
Tuesday...followed quickly on its heels by a shortwave off the
Rockies Tuesday night. Looking for some thunder potential but below
severe at this time.

For temps...highs in the 80s will give way to overnight lows in mid
50s to the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

A dissipated upper low travels from the northern Rockies to the
northern Plains on Thursday. Upper ridging builds into the region on
Friday and Saturday between the aforementioned system and the next
one forming on the west coast. By Sunday, the ridge amplifies over
the High Plains as the west coast disturbance presses into the
central Rockies.

Overall, the extended is dry with the exception being a couple of
spotty shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday as the
dissipated upper low transitions to the Great Lakes region.
Confidence is low during this timeframe due to the pattern and
variations in guidance, making it difficult to pinpoint the location
or timing of precipitation. The weekend should be dry with the ridge

Temperatures remain above normal throughout the period, with highs
in the 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

For Kgld, conditions will start vfr and should become Ifr between
07z and 08z then Ifr/Lifr by 10z. The Ifr/Lifr will continue until
17z. At 17z vfr conditions will return for the remainder of the
period. Winds will start out southeast around 7 knots and then
shift to the south and increase to near 15 knots around 15z. At
17z those winds will increase to 18 knots with gusts to around 26
knots. At 00z those will decrease to 13 knots.

For Kmck, conditions be or shortly become mvfr at the beginning of
the period. Within an hour of that, ifr/lifr conditions will begin
and continue until 15z. From 15z to 17z mvfr conditions are
expected with a return to vfr conditions at 17z. Winds will be
light and variable or light southeast until late morning. Around
17z those winds will be south around 15 knots. At 19z the winds
will increase to 19 knots with gusts to around 27 knots. At 01z
those winds decrease to near 12 knots.


KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for



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