Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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053 FXUS63 KGLD 081717 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1117 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Briefly critical fire weather conditions are forecast around the noon hour for locales along and south of I-70. - Precipitation chances return Thursday and then again Sat/Sun. Severe weather is not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 For today, more mild conditions are forecast across the area as the surface low slowly moves further to the east while the upper low remains over the Plains. With this, the winds will slowly lower through the day to around 10 to 20 mph. Gusts will start around 30 mph, but are forecast to lower going into the afternoon hours as the height gradient weakens with the upper low more over the area. RH is forecast to drop to around 13-20% for locales south of I-70 by the afternoon hours. This will lead to briefly critical conditions around noon, but the weakening winds are forecast to prevent Red Flag criteria from being met. Highs are forecast to near 70. Tonight and into tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to split with a cut off low forecast to develop and move to the west coast while the main trough swings through the Great Lakes region. This will put the area in more of a split flow, however a 850mb disturbance may move through during that time and provide some slight synoptic lift for the area. At the same time, moisture is forecast to move into the area. This would likely lead to an increase in cloud cover and a chance for showers as weak lift and low instability would limit any storms chances. With this tomorrow will see mixed conditions of sunny skies and cloudy with showers. The showers will favor north of I-70 before the more moist air mass mixes too much with the drier air. Highs tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 60`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 For the weekend, warm and dry conditions will give way to more unsettled weather as the upper cut-off low advances to the east. There is some uncertainty with how quickly the upper disturbance will move east with ensembles generally shifted towards the slower tracks. Currently, some slight ridging is forecast to grip the area Friday and Saturday which would allow for warmer temperatures generally near or in the 70`s. Then, as the upper low shifts east, the area will see chances for precipitation, generally starting Saturday afternoon and potentially lasting through Sunday evening. Severe weather is not expected at this time as the cut off low would weaken the winds through much of the atmosphere, keeping shear low. Instability is also forecast to be low with the different types of CAPE below 1000 J/KG. Next week has more uncertainty as there could be smaller disturbances that move through the area as the cut-off low shifts off to the east. Generally speaking, would favor near average temperatures and small chances for precipitation given the suggested pattern. There could also be a larger trough that begins to develop and move through around the mid-week, probably the next feature of interest if it forms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Northwesterly winds will gradually decline this afternoon, remaining light through the night. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...JTL