Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221656
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1056 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Update issued to remove mention of morning fog...and to adjust
cloud cover for this morning. Currently...latest obs show fog has
burned off/dissipated only leaving morning cloud cover. Most
areas now a mostly sunny to sunny mix which should hold for the
day as day time heating effects will give the region more daytime
cu chances. No changes to temps at this time but will adjust
later should cloud cover become too influential thru the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Today-tonight...shortwave ridging slowly moves into the area in
between yesterdays storm system which is now over the southeast
United States and an approaching upper trough and cold front
currently over the pacific northwest. Will have to deal with a few
hours of morning fog otherwise any cloud cover will be from
sufficient moisture in the 850-700mb layer, mainly across the
eastern 1/3 of the area. 850mb temperatures warm 11F across the
northeast to 16F across the west supporting highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Little in the way of cloudiness tonight. Low
temperatures in the low 30s west to upper 30s east.

Monday-Monday night...southeast winds slowly increase through the
day and could approach breezy category along and west of the CO/KS
border ahead of the approaching cold front. 850mb temperatures warm
another 6F to 11F across the area supporting highs in the mid 60s to
near 70 degrees. For the evening hours the cold front is forecast to
move into the northwest half of the area. There is some weak
elevated instability along with good low level convergence and
focused upper jet divergence within an area of 850-500mb moisture.
As a result have added a mention of thunder to the forecast. After
midnight north to northwest winds increase across much of the area
and could be higher than currently advertised. Shouldnt be a problem
reaching breezy category with gusts to 30 mph expected, mainly along
and west of the CO/KS border. Precipitation chances increase across
the area with light rain showers possible, could see a mix of rain
and snow showers west of a line from Flagler to Yuma toward sunrise
Tuesday morning. Low temperatures look to range from the mid 30s
west to low 40s east.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...best chance for additional precipitation is
during the morning hours before decreasing from northwest to
southeast in the afternoon as the center of the upper trough moves
over the area and mid level drying develops. Could see some
wraparound light showers during the night. It will be breezy to
windy and much cooler with afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid 50s. Low temperatures range from the upper 20s/around 30 west to
mid 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

At the start of the extended period the models are showing an upper
level ridge located west of the Rockies while at the same time an
upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes Region into the
High Plains.  This ridge looks to make its way east and influence
the local area with mostly dry conditions by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

However, before that happens, another upper level trough, along with
an associated surface front, will move down the eastern side of this
ridge and pass over the local area on Thursday. This will produce a
chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

The next possibility for precipitation looks to be Saturday
afternoon and evening, as an upper level shortwave trough moves
off the Front Range and into the Central High Plains.

With the an upper ridge moving over the region the afternoon highs
will start out reaching the lower to middle 60s and then reach into
the lower to middle 70s by Saturday.  The Overnight lows will
maintain in the lower to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Mainly VFR conditions expected for both taf sites w/ scattered
cloud cover. A few hours this afternoon (18z-21z) of MVFR
ceilings near BKN015-025 as some morning low clouds linger.

For winds...KGLD will see E around 5-10kts thru 01z
Monday...becoming ESE around 5kts. By 03z Monday S around 10kts.
KMCK will see light/variable conditions thru 01z Monday...then
ESE 5-10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN


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