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181
FXUS62 KFFC 161147
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
0745 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018


.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
A flat ridge aloft will dominate GA today. Moisture and instability
will continue to increase over the forecast area. However...the
best moisture still looks like it will persist across the
area from Columbus to Macon and south. So pops for the afternoon and
evening range from slight chance over the north...to low chance pops
central and far northeast mountains. For tonight and Friday...an
upper trough will deepen over the TN and OH Valleys as a series of
short waves track across the Great Lakes. With better dynamics
associated with the upper trough...have left low pops in for the
far north overnight tonight and increased pops over the area for
Friday.  Not much change expected for temperatures through the
period.

41


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
Moisture continues to increase across the region through the
extended period with best precip chances over the weekend and into
Monday. The weak surface Bermuda like ridge building in across
the northern gulf and southeastern states will keep the next main
frontal system moving east out of the MS river valley north of the
area through friday night. This will keep the deepest moisture
and instability north of our CWA through Saturday morning. By
Friday evening...whats left of the frontal boundary will slowly
move south into the state as the ridge weakens and retreats a bit
to the south and east. This will allow a developing shortwave to
push SE out of the Mid MS river valley and across AL/GA/SC for the
weekend. This wave will bring increased instability and deep
layer moisture back in across the region mainly Saturday through
Monday. By Monday night a second reinforcing frontal boundary
pushes east out of the central and southern plains and sweeps
across the southeastern U.S. Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.
This next frontal system keep precip across the area through day
7. The models differ a bit on the timing and intensity of the
front so sticking with chance pops days 6 and 7 for now.

Temperatures through the extended will stay near average with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and
low to mid 70s.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...

Mostly VFR conditions expected across the taf sites...except
some patchy dense fog is possible mainly KCSG to KMCN until around
14z.  Best chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will also be in the KCSG to KMCN areas and have included a prob30.
Pops too low to add to other taf sites at this time. Winds will be
light...varying around 180 until around 14z...then mainly just west
of south during the day.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium for wind direction today.
High confidence all else.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  72  89  72 /  20  20  50  30
Atlanta         91  73  88  73 /  20  20  50  40
Blairsville     87  67  83  67 /  30  30  60  60
Cartersville    92  72  89  71 /  20  20  60  50
Columbus        92  73  90  73 /  40  30  50  30
Gainesville     90  72  87  71 /  20  20  60  50
Macon           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  50  30
Rome            93  72  89  71 /  20  20  60  60
Peachtree City  91  71  89  72 /  20  20  50  40
Vidalia         92  74  92  74 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41