Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
561 FXUS63 KMKX 091530 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy west to northwest winds today, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan - Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday through the remainder of the week - Warmer temperatures likely mid to late week && .UPDATE... Issued 1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Clear skies this morning will gradually give way to cloudy skies as the shortwave trough drops south through southern Wisconsin today. Looking at Satellite you can already see the cloud deck in northern Wisconsin traveling south toward the area as well as some fair weather cumulus clouds developing across west central Wisconsin. Many areas have already started to climb into the low 70s this morning and the warming trend will continue into the afternoon under the clear skies. Adjusted temps up a bit in portions of south central Wisconsin to reflect some slight warmer temperatures already this morning. Patterson && .SHORT TERM... Issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today through Monday: Broad cyclonic flow will linger across the region today and Monday, with high temperatures remaining a bit below normal. Additionally, a weak shortwave will drop through the area today, bringing mostly cloudy conditions to much of southern Wisconsin by the afternoon hours. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few sprinkles this afternoon, but in general, it doesn`t look like there will be enough moisture for rain showers today. Breezy west to northwest winds are also expected today. Temperatures should crack the low 70s most places today, with somewhat cooler conditions Monday behind the shortwave. It will be even cooler near the lake tomorrow, as winds will turn onshore by the afternoon hours. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tuesday through Saturday: There remains a fair amount of uncertainty for the extended period of the forecast, particulary with precipitation chances. It does appear that the upper level flow will turn more zonal by mid-week, with upper level ridging likely building in this weekend. This will allow temperatures to warm back up to at least normal, if not above normal by the end of the week into the weekend. Models continue to suggest a chance for showers and storms at times, as shortwaves move through the area. Agreement among models with timing/strength/placement of these waves remains on the lower end. Model ensemble data is similarly muddy, with model QPF spread out throughout mid-week into the weekend. Kept the occasional lower end NBM precip chances in the forecast, with not enough confidence yet to raise the chances any particularly day. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. The clear skies this morning will gradually become broken to overcast skies as clouds build in from the north. This cloud deck is expected to be around 2-4 kft as it moves through southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. This cloud deck is expected to clear out tonight. Breezy west to northwest winds will persist through the afternoon before diminishing and becoming northerly late this evening into tonight. The lighter north winds will continue through Monday. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Breezy westerly winds today will veer to the north through the day as a trough moves through the area. These winds will be due to a tighter pressure gradient between high pressure centered just north of the Northern Plains and low pressure centered just east of James Bay in Canada. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from mid-morning into early evening. Northerly winds will remain breezy on Monday between these two systems, as they slowly shift eastward. Lighter winds are then likely Monday night into Tuesday as the high moves through the area, with southerly winds picking up later Tuesday into Wednesday on the back side of the departing high. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Sunday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee