934
FXUS63 KTOP 030545
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic thunderstorm chances remain through Tuesday night with
  severe weather potential

- Quiet stretch from Wednesday into late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Central portions of Kansas and Nebraska have seen several rounds of
high-based showers and thunderstorms in the past 10-15 hours. Recent
rounds have resulted from persistent mid-level warm-air advection
over outflow boundaries from previous convection. Outside of this
region, destabilization has occurred with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg in
eastern Kansas and 3000 J/kg in far western Kansas where dewpoints
in the lower 60s were common in a well mixed boundary layer under mid-
level lapse rates of 9 C/km. Some convective inhibition remains in
both areas though scattered convection has already formed in western
Nebraska and southeast Colorado.

The latter areas should be the main regions to monitor in the coming
hours where a modest mid-level wave will approach this evening.
Forcing for ascent locally is rather unorganized though some
convergence has materialized downstream of where daytime mixing has
taken place. 12Z models have had little handle on the nearby
precipitation today, but even the few 12Z and more recent runs that
have some semblance of it continue to form convective complexes
upstream this evening and traverse them in to near the local area.
Local mid-level lapse rates should be around 8 C/km with MUCAPE
falling from around 2000 J/kg west to 1000 J/kg east, and with a low-
level jet around 40 knots the support for severe convection remains
in place, still mainly a hail and wind threat, with diminishing
support with eastward extent, though the aforementioned
precipitation has impacted continues between the High Plains and
here.

Have left small precipitation chances going for Monday into Monday
night with at least small potential for more outflow boundaries
lingering. The next greatest thunderstorm chances come Tuesday
afternoon and evening as the northern Plains shortwave shoves a cold
front into the region. Modest upper level support continues to be
forecast this far south. Instability parameters showing around 2500
J/kg MLCAPE with little CIN with dewpoints around 70 (though there
will be some low stratus potential) and deep-layer shear around 30
knots to support severe weather, with a hail and wind concern.

A drier 48 hours or so continue to be anticipated from Wednesday into
Thursday night with a less humid airmass followed by a more modified
Canadian airmass in the latter portions of this period.
Precipitation chances return late in the week into the weekend with
moisture increasing under the continued northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR at terminals, focusing on two clusters of TSRA across
north central and western Kansas. The northern cluster has
continued to show signs of weakening as it approaches sites in
the 07-09Z time frame. The secondary cluster may come close to
KMHK aft 13Z but more likely pass to the south. Confidence is
higher for impacts at KMHK from the first TSRA cluster so have
added TSRA aft 07Z while lesser confidence resides for
KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Prieto