Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 311110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT TO ONE OF THE TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS


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