Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 272352

National Weather Service Topeka KS
652 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High pressure across the upper midwest continues to shift eastward.
As it continues to shift eastward, southerly flow has returned to
much of the central and southern plains. The return flow will help
usher in upper 50s to near 60 degree dew points overnight. The main
concern during the forecast period is the formation of a low stratus
deck. Forecast soundings suggest low level moisture advection
overnight, similar to last night. However, the surface inversion is
much weaker overnight along with a stronger LLJ, which should
preclude fog formation due to sufficient mechanical mixing.
Expectation is for a stratus deck to originate near midnight across
the southeastern portion of the outlook area, then spreading
northward overnight. The favored location for low clouds is mainly
east of a Marysville to Herington line. BL mixing will increase
after sunrise tomorrow morning, which will ultimately scatter the
stratus deck by late morning. A tight pressure gradient will setup
up across the area ahead of the next cold front over the weekend.
This will result in southerly winds sustained at 10-15 knots and
gusts upwards of 25 knots during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The medium period will start out warm with temperatures much above
normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This could flirt
with a few record highs, especially in north central Kansas. Warmest
temps are expected in the thermal ridge across the southern 2/3rds
of the cwa ahead of an approaching cold front on Saturday.
Temperatures will cool on Sunday to near or slightly above normal in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Warm advection kicks back in Saturday
night into early Sunday as ridge builds back in and a warm front
moves northeast of the CWA. Another shortwave trough moves through
the Northern Plains Monday and Monday night. Warm advection and
thermal ridge builds across central and eastern Kansas on Monday.
Monday night another cold front will move through dry across
northeast Kansas. Cooler temperatures are expected again on Tuesday
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Model differences show up
near the middle of next week between the GFS and ECMWF along with
their ensembles. Coordinating with surrounding offices have decided
to lower precipitation chances some from the model blends.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Difficult TAF through 12Z as low level moisture will move over TAF
sites and will likely produce a moving area of low cigs and
potentially low visibilities. At this time, MHK looks to be near
the edge of this so have only used a tempo group during the most
likely time period of reduced flight conditions. TOP/FOE will
likely be impacted but unsure exactly how low/widespread the cigs
will be. There is also some potential that the moisture will build
down to fog at TOP/FOE but am more confident in cigs than fog.




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