Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 200529

1129 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the central and
southern plains this afternoon. Patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle
continued across east central KS. Temperatures at 1 PM were right at
the freezing mark across most of the CWA. Temperatures may warm
another 1 to 3 degree into the mid 30s through the remainder of the

Tonight, southwesterly winds at the surface up to 950mb will advect
residual moisture northward across the CWA. Areas of fog will
develop from south to north across the CWA. I cannot rule out some
patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures will only drop
into the lower 30s to upper 20s. Even if patchy freezing drizzle
develops most of the treated roads should remain damp. Side streets
and elevated surfaces may become slick due to the patchy freezing
drizzle or the residual moisture freezing on road surface.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Warm advection continues Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching upper trough crossing the Rockies. Models are in
agreement with a lead wave moving out of the trough and across the
Plains by Sunday morning with another wave on its heels in the
afternoon. Low level moisture will be in place with some lift in the
low level could see some drizzle across the east central Kansas
counties during the day. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the
mid and upper 40s with the lower temps in the deeper remaining

Sunday night and Monday the main upper trough will move across the
Plains moving through yielding the higher precipitation chances
across the area. Moisture and additional energy wrapping around the
upper low will bring a chance of light precipitation into northeast
Kansas in the form of light snow. Prior to then all precipitation
will fall as rain from Sunday through Monday with some rain and snow
mix in far northeast Kansas Monday night as colder air arrives.

Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday almost 10 or 15 degrees from
Mondays highs in the upper 40s to around 50s. So highs Tuesday will
range from the middle 30s to around 40. For the mid week period
northwest flow becomes Zonal or southwest on Christmas Day. The
ECMWF has a deeper trough moving across the Plains. Both models
develop a surface low pressure area and move it across Kansas.
Models have been tending northward and its still looking like bulk
of precipitation will be to the northwest of the CWA in Nebraska.
Will maintain a small chance of rain and snow, but confidence is not
high at all.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tricky aviation forecast as nose of drier low level air works
toward MHK. Have added a tempo group early on but expect clouds to
build back in. Did go ahead and bring cigs up MVFR as think cigs
should stay above 1000ft agl. Did keep afternoon clearing trend
for MHK but not yet sold on TOP/FOE as moisture from the south is
quick to return later Saturday along with clouds and lower visbys.




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