Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260506

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1206 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

In the big picture, a strong upper low is rotating in the upper
Midwest moves off to the northeast. A new closed low is expected to
develop in the Desert Southwest. This scenario will continue to
eject several pockets of mid level disturbances. Therefore, as the
current cold front continues to slide to the southeast this
afternoon and evening. We will experience ample amounts of
convergence and due to the levels of moisture in the area, showers
and isolated storms will continue. Heavy rains will be the main
issue, however a few of the storms could be a bit stronger and
produce winds to 50 mph or pea sized hail. Severe weather does not
seem likely.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

An upper high pressure system begins to take over the weather
pattern on Wednesday and bring about drier conditions with temps
much cooler than the past week. Another upper low begins to trek
towards the state Saturday night which will begin to weaken the high
pressure system to our south. This will begin to introduce chances
for rain again late Saturday into Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Periods of rain will continue across the terminals Tonight and
into the morning hours of Monday. There may be some isolated
thunderstorms through the early morning hours. Guidance is showing
low MVFR ceilings and possible IFR ceilings moving across the
terminals by 12Z and lasting through the mid morning hours.




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