Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Early this morning an upper level low was located across northeast
OK. The upper low will track northeast across MO Today and Tonight.
Wrap around moisture combined with weak frontogenetical forcing will
cause scattered showers to continue through the day. As the upper
low moves farther northeast across central and northeast MO, the
residual moisture and ascent will shift east of the CWA, bringing an
end to the precipitation.

Cloudy skies and north-northwesterly surface winds will keep high
temperatures cool Today, with mid 40s along the NE border to around
50 degrees along and south of I-70.

Tonight, The cloud cover will linger which will help to keep
overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Precipitation chances remain to be the main forecast challenge for
these periods. Models are consistent with split flow continuing
into late next week, but this flow regime does lead to differences
in handling the main features. GFS and its ensembles are quicker
with the next wave that was digging into the West Coast early this
morning. Have trended with the bulk of the guidance with keeping
measurable precip out of the are until the evening hours. Still
appears there may be enough instability for a few thunderstorms in
the south Sunday night with better coverage in the south as well.
Even the slower solutions keep the bulk of Monday afternoon dry.
Next system move out of the Southern Rockies Tuesday night with
again good moisture availability for high precip chances into
Tuesday night into at least Wednesday, but there are a variety of
solutions on its evolution and speed into the end of the week. Have
kept some precip mention into Thursday at this point. Both of these
systems keep precip phase in liquid form with the split flow
preventing cold air intrusion. Low cloud looks rather prevalent for
much of Sunday with some afternoon breaks possible in the south and
west and have trended temps cooler in the northeast. Highs Tuesday
should reach back into the mid to upper 60s with mid 50s to mid 60s
for the remainder of the period. Lows remain comfortably above
freezing through this forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

For the 12Z TAFs, good confidence that IFR CIGS remain into the
first 6hrs of the period. A few gusts of wind from the NNW should
keep CIG/VIS from degrading much more into sunrise time frame.
Holding onto areas of showers longer at KTOP/KFOE with gradual
improvements to MVFR at KMHK and holding those improvements to
MVFR at KMHK into the afternoon period. Overcast MVFR skies should
remain through much of the entire forecast period though as the
system in place is slow to move out.




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