Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 292333
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain has overspread most of the forecast area as of this mid
afternoon, with some areas in Ottawa county accumulating around an
inch and a half of rain so far today. Expect this area to continue
to spread east through the evening hours, with generally up to an
inch of rain possible by early Saturday morning.  Good news would be
that models are moving this system east a little quicker, and should
dry out much of the forecast area south of I70 for a good part of
the day on Saturday.  Locations along the Nebraska border linger in
the rain longer as the surface low wraps precipitation back
southeast into that area through the day. For the most part
anticipate rain to be light to moderate, as effective shear around
25 kts doesn`t have much instability to work with this far north.
More likely potential will be south of the interstate where some
of that instability works its way northeast through the overnight
hours. Lows fall into the 40s and 50s tonight before rising to
near 60 northwest and near 70 across east central Kansas saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by
the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of
the area. A mid level shortwave trough drops southeast over the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, shifting the trough axis back over
northeast Kansas during the afternoon. In conjunction with a weak
pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the
southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening.
Rain intensity looks to be primarily light. Highs remain cool Sunday
underneath mostly cloudy skies with readings from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the
country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
Highs quickly recover back into the 70s for highs Tuesday onward
while overnight lows hover in the upper 40s. By the end of the week,
a negatively tilted trough deepens over the west, gradually breaking
down the ridge and bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

For the 00z TAFs, main concern is on the scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will persist off and on through most
of the evening and overnight hours. However, KTOP/KFOE may see a
few more breaks in the precipitation compared to KMHK. Expect the
MVFR cigs this evening to drop to IFR at times with the scattered
precipitation and certainly during the overnight hours. Some model
guidance even suggests that cigs may drop to LIFR conditions at
times overnight, so will need to continue to monitor that
potential. MVFR vis will be possible at times with precipitation.
While the last of the scattered precipitation should lift north of
the TAF sites Saturday morning, IFR/MVFR cigs may linger through
late morning before improving to VFR Saturday afternoon. East
northeasterly winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday
morning behind the exiting precipitation.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke



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