Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 162348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
548 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Clear skies across the forecast area today along with southerly
winds and temperatures well into the 50s not making it feel very
much like December. Next system to bring sensible weather changes
through tonight into Sunday is over west Texas and lifting to the

Temperatures in the northwest counties may dip a few degrees lower
late this evening before the clouds make it in and as winds lighten
up. Otherwise the incoming clouds will help hold overnight lows in
the east up into the 40s while the NW is closer to freezing,
although those temperatures will likely come back up as the clouds
come in. Light rain showers forecast to lift from the southwest
across generally the eastern half of the forecast area, with showers
into the southern counties around or just after midnight and
spreading northeast. Its a quick moving system, and will be lucky
to squeeze a few tenths out with the far eastern counties having
the best shot. Eastern Kansas stays in the cloud cover for the
morning and into the afternoon on Sunday, however the cooler air
that wraps southeastward into the state behind the upper system is
not all that cold, with highs around 40 still anticipated in the
far northwest and may hold onto 50 in the far southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

All attention turns to late week into the weekend as a shortwave
trough digs over the western US and the northern plains. One thing
for certain is that a strong arctic air mass pushes southward
through the region beginning on Thursday. The associated cold front
appears to have a tight pressure gradient, which should support
gusty winds. With the front deepening somewhere in eastern KS
temperatures on Thursday could range from the mid 50s to the mid
30s. Although behind the front temperatures cool into the upper
teens and lower 20s by Friday morning. The main question becomes
will there be any precipitation that accompanies this frontal
passage. The problem is that the models are not handling the
evolution of the energy that digs across the western US. Some of the
models are cutting that system off over the southwestern US, while
other solutions are partially phasing the southern and northern
waves into one large positively tilted trough. Unfortunately, the
GEFS members are split between these two solutions as well.
Regardless there is consensus to develop some precipitation as a
result of the increasing frontogenetical lift. As of now a majority
of that lift and moisture stays just north of the area, but
confidence on exact amounts and locations will remain low until
better model agreement.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue through 09Z when a
transition to MVFR cigs is expected as light rain develops over
eastern Kansas. Precipitation mainly to affect TOP and FOE from
11Z-17Z. Forecast soundings suggest cigs will hover between MVFR
and VFR in the 18Z-24Z time period.




LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.