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000
FXUS63 KTOP 202314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS A COUPLE OF FRONTS IN AND NEAR OUR
CWA. FIRST IS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE OTHER
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTH OF I-35. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG BOTH OF
THE BOUNDARIES WITH THE STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 100 TO 120 M2/S2 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS ARE BACKED SLIGHTLY IN THE
LOW LEVELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35 THROUGH MID EVENING.

HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS WILL BE
COUPLED WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH EVENING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-35. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. BEST FORCING
WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY FROM OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LAST SHORTWAVE LOBE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST TUESDAY NIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL
INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN AT THAT TIME AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INTO THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDS ARE
HINTING THAT AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY FORCE THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH IT. EITHER WAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM MAINLY THE
70S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST OF THE
AREA. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO OUT
OF THE WEST AND WEST SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THIS LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TO
PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW/MID
CLOUDS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...HENNECKE