Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 240447
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Mid level moisture is increasing over the northern plains this
afternoon with a broad upper trough coming onshore. Northeast KS
remains under an upper ridge for the time being with light winds and
clear skies in place. Sfc trough is expected to deepen over the
western high plains this evening, inducing height falls and an
increasing pressure gradient towards the CWA after midnight. Winds
remain steady around 10 mph, keeping temperatures warmer than Monday
morning with readings in the 40s. Shortly after sunrise, south winds
quickly pick up between 15 and 25 mph sustained through the
afternoon. Gusts appear strongest in the early afternoon between
35 and 45 mph. Will need to monitor the potential for wind advisory
criteria, especially in the Flint Hills region where short term
guidance highlights the strongest winds. With the warm advection in
place, sided closer to consmos with highs in the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Rain chances return Monday night as a surface low moves northeast as
energy moves out over the plains. Isentropic lift over a northward
moving warm front may generate showers after midnight, shifting
northward to along the nebraska border Tuesday morning. Later
Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move southeast into the CWA as
an upper level trough shifts eastward across the Plains. EML will be
in place ahead of the front and forecast soundings show the cap
weakening after 21Z Tuesday ahead of the front over northeast
Kansas. Shear and instability will be sufficient for a few strong to
severe storms to develop along the front mainly across east central
Kansas with areas southeast of Interstate 35 looking to have the
better potential. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main
hazards. Showers are expected behind the front into Wednesday as the
upper trough moves across the Central Plains. Coolest temperatures
of the week are expected Wednesday night as temperatures drop into
the 30s across the area.

Next chance for showers arrives Thursday afternoon with chances
continuing into next weekend. Initially a lead wave is expected to
eject out of the deepening Trough over the Rockies as well as
increasing isentropic lift over the frontal boundary along the
Oklahoma border. Models continue to have differences with the upper
trough over the Rockies moving out into the Plains next weekend.
There is still potential for some strong strong to severe storms
across parts of the area Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances
continue on Sunday along with a chance for storms. Temperatures will
be on the cool side for much of the week with 50s Wednesday and
mainly 60s through Sunday for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.  Continued with the
same timing for LLWS tonight, with LLWS expected to end at 14Z for
all sites.  Southerly winds will pick up in the morning and
afternoon with gusts up to 35 knots possible through 23Z.  After
this time decreased gusts to less than 25 knots, with most gusts
ending by 02Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Heller



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