Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252008

National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Weak surface cyclogenesis taking place in north central Kansas ahead
of a modest wave in the zonal flow aloft. Cirrus has been persistent
but not terribly thick ahead of this wave, and in concert with gusty
south winds, highs have pushed into the mid 80s in some locations.
Despite dewpoints reaching into the lower 60s, an elevated mixed
layer has kept convective inhibition well over 100 J/kg per RAP

Concern for convection in/near peak heating continues to wane with
an overall slower trend to the wave and the cap in place. The wave
is still expected to deepen as it passes through Central Plains
tonight into early Wednesday, and with well above normal moisture in
place, should see at least scattered convection develop, with
coverage likely increasing as both moisture and low level jet ramp
up. Lapse rates aloft should be steep enough for around 1000 J/kg of
elevated CAPE along with some shear for minor potential for some
large hail with a few storms. Precip will likely linger in east
central Kansas after sunrise Wednesday, but subsidence behind the
trough quickly builds in by late morning. The modified continental
airmass moving in should only drop highs back into the low to mid

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure gradually drifting eastward from the CWA on Thursday
will allow for one final mild afternoon with highs in the lower to
middle 70s. As the upper ridge amplifies over the central plains by
Friday, the sfc pressure gradient increases southerly winds at 10 to
20 mph sustained throughout the afternoon. In addition, 925 mb temps
are near or above 20 C from all guidance, suggesting lows Friday
morning in the upper 50s with highs in the lower and middle 80s to
be common. Saturday morning lows may also remain pretty mild around
60 degrees, before some high clouds increase and a weak cold front
passes through dry. Areas along and south of I 70 may once again
reach the upper 70s Saturday before the cooler airmass drops highs
back into the lower 70s on Sunday. Extended guidance remains pretty
consistent for Halloween as broad troughing over the northern plains
pushes another cold front through aft 00Z. The cold air lags
somewhat behind the boundary with readings in the upper 70s for
highs Monday and overnight lows into the lower 50s. Shortly
thereafter on Tuesday, GFS becomes the more progressive solution
with a shortwave trough lifting from the southwest Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low end chances for thunderstorms were mentioned since
the ECMWF advertises a dry forecast with the slower progression of
the wave progged to arrive later in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Only minor changes to the forecast. Uncertainty on timing of
precipitation remains somewhat high however with a wide range of
possibilities from guidance. Visibilities could reach IFR in the
stronger storms however.




LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...65 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.