Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KTOP 270453
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION AND DEPARTING WAVE.  MORE STORMS
FORMING OUT WEST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH TERRAIN...WHILE SOME
REMNANT OUTFLOW UNDERCUTTING A SHORTWAVE OVER SW KS HAS GENERATED
SOME AGITATED CU ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR.
STRONGER SHORTWAVES NOTED IN WV IMAGERY OUT OVER THE ROCKIES LOOK TO
TRACK PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...LLJ INCREASES AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER WAVES OVER
COLORADO...HOWEVER BETTER CONVERGENCE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA.  COULD SEE A FEW STORMS CLIP THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND JET TURNS ALONG WITH
IT...BUT ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED POP AT THIS TIME.  DIMINISHED THEM
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY DURING THE DAY.  MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH
SIMILAR DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST...THINK WE WILL BE NEAR BUT GENERALLY
UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SFC TROUGH DEEPENS WITH THE NORTHERN APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT, MIXING THROUGH 800 MB INCREASES TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S FOR ONE FINAL AFTERNOON TUESDAY. HEAT
INDICES MAY ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA BETWEEN 101
AND 105 DEGREES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON, 12Z
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KS. DECENT CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INHIBITION BY 00Z MAY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS. A
FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE VEERING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. DECENT MOISTURE FLUX AND PWAT VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES MAY PRODUCE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WAS INSERTED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH DECREASING CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

EXPECT THIS TREND OF COOLER TEMPS TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE READINGS GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, TRANSITIONING MEAN
UPPER FLOW SOUTHEASTWARD. WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES BETWEEN GUIDANCE
SIGNAL OCCASIONAL STORMS BEING POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER DETAILS ON
TIMING REMAIN TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN. EXPECT SHOWERS TO AND ISOLD TSRA TO AFFECT MHK
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. HI RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW
COMPLEX DIMINISHING BEFORE MAKING IT TO TOP AND FOE TERMINALS.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER 16Z TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 01Z
AND BECOME LIGHT. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...53



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.