Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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170
FXUS63 KTOP 181730
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1130 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Front has made its way across much of the forecast area at this
hour, bringing gusty northwest winds as it comes through, along with
some rain showers.  Temperatures across far north central Kansas
already down to the low 40s, with upper 50s and falling along and
south of I35.  Primary concern for the short term is the wind gusts
that may accompany this front as it continues to move through. by
around 11z, winds around 880mb peak at 50kts and continue through
around 17z when they they quickly lighten.  Not certain these will
mix down to the surface, with most guidance indicating gusts moreso
in the 35-40mph range.  The HRRR is most aggressive with a wide
stripe of 45kt gusts around 12z bisecting the area.  At this time it
remains the outlier by about 5-7kts, and will see how the pattern
evolves over the next hour or so. If the stronger HRRR solution
starts to verify, may have to hoist an advisory. For now will hold
onto grids that already indicate wind gusts around 40mph in the
morning hours.

Clouds, showers and winds move east and diminish through the
afternoon, and should bring enough sunshine to get highs in to the
lower 50s. Not anticipating much for measured rainfall with this
front either.  The cooler airmass in place overnight will drop lows
for Saturday night back down into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

No real sensible weather to talk about in the extended period.  High
pressure will still be influencing the area Sunday keeping conditions
dry with near seasonable temperatures.  Winds increase Monday with
gusty winds up to 35 mph expected across eastern Kansas which could
lead to elevated fire danger concerns.  A dry cold front moves
through the area Tuesday bringing chilly temperatures Tuesday night
falling into the low 20s.  Surface high pressure moves back in
Wednesday and temperatures stay cooler behind the front with highs
in the 40s this day. Thanksgiving Day is still shaping up to be
pleasant with highs in the 50s, light winds, and mostly clear skies.
 Another slight warm up ahead of a front is seen Friday.  Overall,
dry and fairly seasonable conditions persist through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Winds will continue to be the main concern through 23Z with gusty
northwest winds to 33 kts or higher. Sustained winds around
20-23 kts will be common from the northwest. WInds decrease to
less than 10 kts after 23Z, then become southwest after 13Z
Sunday. VFR conditions expected to continue through the end of the
period. However some sct-bkn mvfr clouds will be possible through
22Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53



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