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000
FXUS63 KTOP 221122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Tranquil weather continues to dominate the local area this morning
while a rather impressive storm system was crossing Texas and
Oklahoma. While high clouds have been streaming into northeast KS
from this system, they will only act to keep early morning
temperatures a bit warmer in the middle to upper 20s. Another area
of lower cloud cover was also drifting south across northeast KS
along with continued weak cold advection. These clouds have also
helped keep morning temps a bit warmer, but are expected to only
gradually decrease through today and will likely keep high
temperatures cooler. Highs should be near normal, in the 38 to 42
range, with the coolest temps likely from Topeka and Lawrence to the
north where clouds are most likely to hang around into the
afternoon. Do expect full clearing by this evening with surface high
pressure building overhead. Clear skies, light winds, and a dry
airmass should lead to lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

By Friday, the slow moving upper trough across the southern plains
progresses eastward as it encounters a northern stream wave over the
Midwest. This secondary wave of energy will help strengthen this
system as it lifts across the eastern coast for the weekend. Over
northeast Kansas, dry northwest flow with downsloping winds off the
western high plains will induce a warming trend beginning Friday
afternoon. Highs quickly rebound to near 50 degrees before a quick
and weak shortwave trough passes through, bringing mostly cloudy
skies in the late afternoon. These clouds are progged to dissipate
by Saturday morning as northwest winds carry the plus 4C h85 temps
overhead. Ample sunshine and some mixing to near 950 mb will boost
temps in the middle 50s.

Next stronger shortwave trough still on track to bypass the CWA to
the north and east, with the only exception of being the ECMWF which
has been less than persistent in the past few runs. Of greater notes
for Sunday are the warmth, the stronger northwest winds, and fire
danger concerns. Blocking ridge to the northwest will push the
colder airmass eastward, keeping temperatures warmer behind the
departing trough as BL mixing increases to near 925 mb. Highs were
increased to near 60 degrees and may be higher if surface winds are
a bit stronger. Minimum humidity values during the late afternoon
fall to the mid 30 percent range. This combination is worth
monitoring in the upcoming days for fire weather. Slightly cooler
air from a 1030 mb high over the eastern CONUS lowers highs Monday
over the eastern half of the CWA. Readings may generally range from
the low 50s east to upper 50s west. Strong and similar signals from
the GFS/ECMWF show much warmer temps Tuesday and Wednesday as
ridging amplifies and h85 temps from 10C to 16C spread into the CWA.
Increased highs a few degrees to the lower 60s for now and may need
to go warmer if trends persist or increase in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Ceilings in the 2200 to 3600 foot range have moved over TAF sites
and will remain overhead with a gradual west to east decrease late
morning into the afternoon. Expect VFR ceiling heights for much of
the TAF but there have been pockets of MVFR ceilings so have
included a TEMPO group for the first few hours to account for
these pockets. VFR is likely after 18Z with clear skies by 00Z.
Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch