Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 280442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Pacific front will push east of the area this evening taking
thunderstorm chcs with it.  Light showers associated with the upper
low will clip the northern half of the CWA tonight with scattered
showers but any rain will be light.  Gusty WNW winds should ease off
after midnight with cool overnight lows in the 40-45 range.

The area will see a brief break with ridging aloft to bring the area
a dry day on Thursday with highs in the 60s with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

For the mid and extended forecast periods, another upper level low
system becomes organized over the Four Corners region into the
morning hours Friday.  A series of lead shortwaves kick out of the
Rockies into the Central Plains overspreading the area with enough
upper level forcing to cause more rainfall Friday day time frame.
The EC and GFS differ what appears to be quite a bit with the amount
and duration of instability into Saturday morning and during the day
as the main lobe of energy move out over the Central Plains and the
upper low deepens.  Therefore, considering a negatively tilted
feature in play and dewpoints still around the mid 50s and
favorable 0-6km shear of above 40-50kts with steep mid-level lapse
rates there may be enough forcing for at least some storms to form
and reach around severe levels mainly concerning hail most likely
and possibly some gusty outflow winds.  Then late day Saturday into
Sunday, the upper low matures completely and fills then gets carried
off with the upper flow as an open wave over the Ohio River Valley
into the day Sunday.  From then, upper level ridging begins to build
over the region into early week before possibly transitioning back
to a more quiet pattern.

Temps for the period should remain around normal with no significant
advection either way, so expecting highs to be in the upper 60s to
low 70s and low temps to be in the upper 40s for much of the time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Low pressure over western IA this evening will move off to the
northeast and weaken. Westerly winds will diminish tonight, then
become northwest and north during Thursday. While mid and high
clouds will move in on Thursday, ceilings should be VFR. Next
chance of precipitation will be late Thursday night.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...GDP



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