Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 212324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

This afternoon, the center of surface high pressure was analyzed to
be over southeast Kansas.  Due to this, light winds and mostly clear
skies with the occasional fair weather cumulus have been seen
today.  Tonight, winds will shift from the south as the high
pressure slides east warming lows slightly from the previous night,
into the upper 50s and low 60s.  As for tomorrow, winds pick up as
the gradient over northeast Kansas increases between a trough to the
northwest and the aforementioned high to the east.  Highs are also in
the increase due to decent warm air advection into the area and
mostly clear skies leading to diurnal warming.  Highs Monday will be
mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

A series of waves will eject out across the Plains beginning on
Tuesday as a larger scale shortwave trough moves across southern
Canada. A longwave trough present over the western CONUS will eject
the waves through Wednesday as the Canadian wave slowly moves east
southeast across the Northern Plains. This will move a front slowly
across the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday and should move into north
central Kansas during the day on Wednesday. Shear looks marginal
across the area on Tuesday around 25kts of effective shear and
soundings show MLCAPE around 1600 J/kg. The stronger storms will be
capable of producing hail and string wind gusts. With the slow
movement of the front, abundant moisture and winds aloft parallel to
the surface front, locally heavy rainfall will be possible on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be around normal in the mid and upper
80s on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Lows will be mild Wednesday
morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday morning could still see some showers and thunderstorms with
marginal shear and a conditionally unstable environment in place
with a weak cold front moving through the area.  Stronger surface
ridging should set up over northeastern and most of east central
Kansas the rest of the day Thursday into the afternoon Friday with
only slight chance POPs along very southern and southwestern borders
of the outlook area as the front resides over southern Kansas.
However, late Friday night precip chances increase in response to
isentropic lift ahead of a weak lead shortwave advecting into the
region from the southwest around a positively tilted western trough.
This should pull the boundary back to the north before the weak
system moves into the Mid MS Valley by the latter half of the
weekend. Chances for any hazardous weather at this time appear to be
low. Temps for the period still mild for August in the upper 70s for
highs slowly climbing into the mid 80s by Sunday.  Lows should
bottom in the upper 50s Thursday night and climb into the upper 60s
by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Low level
winds near 500 ft AGL will be in the 25-30 kt range after 08Z but
expect surface winds of 4-10 kts at that time so have not included
LLWS, but will monitor observations sfc and aloft in case
amendments are needed.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Drake/53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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