Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 070850
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

There has been a parade of shortwave troughs over the central US,
which are responsible for the re-enforcing shot of cold air today.
Surface high pressure progresses southward across the high plains
today, which will allow the pressure gradient to relax through out
the day. Although winds will continue to be gusty especially across
far eastern KS where the gradient still remains. Temperatures have
dropped into the 20s and are forecasted to reach the mid to upper
teens by sunrise. Therefore wind chill values will be in the single
digits until late morning. Wind speeds are already fairly light
across portions of central KS. Expect this to be the trend today as
the high quickly reaches the southern plains. Most of the models
agree that highs today will generally be around freezing for most
locations. By tonight winds shift to the southwest as the high
retreats southeastward, but should remain under 10 mph. Lows again
are forecasted to be in the upper teens and lower 20s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

By the end of the week, the strong mid-level trough will still be in
place across the eastern U.S., resulting in persistent northwesterly
flow aloft across the central U.S.  Models continue to show this mid-
level trough remaining anchored over the eastern U.S. through the
weekend and through much of next week, with several embedded
shortwaves developing within the mid-level flow.  The first of these
shortwaves will track southwest of the Great Lakes region Friday
night into Saturday, with a surface trough tracking across the CWA
on Friday ahead of this advancing shortwave.  As a result, surface
winds will shift to the northwest by late Friday morning and will
keep temperatures near the seasonal normals through Saturday with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.  By Sunday, the mid-level
trough will flatten some over the central U.S. ahead of the next
advancing shortwave coming out of Canada.  As a result, the mid-
level flow will become more westerly, which will push 8C-10C 850mb
temperatures into the area with afternoon mixing likely allowing
high temperatures to rise into the mid/upper 50s and possibly even
low 60s across central KS.  This next shortwave will slide
southeastward across the CWA on Monday, pushing a cold front through
the area by Monday morning. With the surface and mid-level flow
shifting back to the northwest, expect a slight cool-down with highs
in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s through the middle of the week.
Despite all of these shortwaves tracking over the area, the better
moisture and forcing looks to remain mostly northeast of the CWA, so
have a dry forecast going at this time.  However, if the tracking of
any of these waves shifts closer toward the CWA, then there may be
chances for some scattered light precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northwest winds
will shift from the west near 00Z and become light and variable
overnight.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller



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