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701
FXUS63 KTOP 151124
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Breezy and cool conditions have moved in over the area, behind the
upper wave that brought rain and wind on Saturday.  Through the day
today, high pressure makes its way southeastward, bringing cooler
temperatures, abundant sunshine and decreasing winds.  Areas should
hit low 60s by late afternoon.  This surface high actually shifts
slightly southeast of the state in the overnight hours with a light
west wind forecast by early morning, but think by then stronger
inversions will have already formed.  Wet ground may help temper a
drop in overnight lows, but still anticipate some patchy frost
across mainly areas along and north of I-70 and favored in low
spots.  Lows forecast to fall from around 40 to the middle 30s, with
some guidance hitting 32 for some locations. At this time given
conditions mentioned above not expecting a widespread frost or
freeze at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Northwest flow aloft continues through late week, which will keep
the weather quiet and temperatures seasonable. Next weekend an
elongated positivity tilted mid-level trough passes over the Rockies
and eventually over the central US. As a result a weak cold front
approaches the area and brings the chances for precipitation. The
gulf moisture will begin to stream northward on Friday ahead of the
front. The dynamics with this system seem limited at this point so
not expecting any widespread hazardous weather. The front becomes
rather diffuse once it reaches eastern KS There is a little better
model agreement on handling the piece of energy that cuts off from
the main flow. It appears this might take place over the southern
place or even further south. If this is the case it will have little
if no effect on our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR conditions forecast through 12z Monday. Winds have diminished
across the area and are expected to remain generally blo 10kts
through the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67