


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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283 FXUS63 KTOP 281112 AAA AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Topeka KS 612 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and Humid pattern continues this weekend with small chances for thunderstorms today and tonight. - Better chances for strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening across the area. Damaging winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A very moist but weak flow regime remains in place across the area this morning. A weak wave was evident across northeast OK where another area of convection was developing. The surface pattern featured a somewhat uniform southerly flow across the area with no obvious boundaries apparent. For today, expect a near persistence forecast with morning showers or isolated storms across southeast KS and some of those may drift into the southeast parts of our area later this morning or into the afternoon. 500mb heights do show modest rises today so expect any showers or storms to be isolated. Highs should again range from the upper 80s southeast to mid 90s central. Tonight a 30-35kt LLJ should develop and generate lift/WAA and in turn scattered elevated convection after midnight across parts of the area. Shear remains weak so severe storms are not expected overnight. On Sunday a front will drop into southern NE with a very unstable atmosphere expected to develop ahead of the front across KS. Scattered clusters or lines of storms should develop by afternoon ahead of the front and surge south into the area. Modest shear but extreme instability should result in an environment favorable for damaging winds as line segments bow out and accelerate south into the evening. Some lingering showers or storms may persist across the southern half of the area Monday before high pressure builds in with cooler and less humid air by Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A small area of IFR stratus has developed over Lyon County this morning. This area of stratus should dissipate as the sun rises and mixing begins in the next couple of hours. VFR conds should prevail for the day into the evening. Scattered tsra will develop after midnight but coverage is uncertain and will not include it in the forecast at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Omitt AVIATION...Omitt