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000
FXUS63 KTOP 142054
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SHORT TERM FORECAST (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED IN SC
NEBRASKA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
EAST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEAST WARD THROUGH
THE LOW TO NC NEBRASKA. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY ACROSS NW KANSAS INTO
SC NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY KEEP
THOSE STORMS ROOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS THOSE SW WINDS ARE ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY. SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH...ALONG INTERSTATE 80 CONDITIONS ARE PRIMED FOR
STORMS TO FORM ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THE
BULK OF THIS STORMY ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...ENTERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ULTIMATELY THE STORY ACTIVITY IN FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH E/SE INTO NW MISSOURI
AND PERHAPS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF KANSAS. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE
MCS MAY CLIP THAT AREA.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE STORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...THIS TIME MORE LOCALLY. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE A
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT FOR SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE RUNS. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND THE KS/NE BORDER
SATURDAY...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE RATHER HIGH AT THIS POINT
AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (LOW LEVEL LIFT) WILL BE AIDED BY A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN TEXAS. WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR IN THE AREA THE CHANCES FOR
SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BE STRONG ARE GOOD. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE EXACT
LOCATION FOR THIS BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GENERAL
THOUGHT IS THAT IT WILL SET UP BETWEEN I-70 AND THE KS/NE BORDER. BY
LATE IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT THE STORMS TO FORM
INTO ANOTHER MCS...WHICH WILL LIKELY DIVE E/SE TOWARD FAR EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS PER DISCUSSION
ABOVE...SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE FAVORED POPS WEST
TO EAST THROUGH 12Z...DIMINISHING TO THE SE THROUGH 18Z...AND
KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INITIAL WAVE PASSES
AND SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BEGINS TO ROLL OF THE HIGH PLAINS
TOWARD THE WESTERN COUNTIES. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
PLUS EARLY CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT STORMS LOOK TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH AND
WEST WHERE MID LEVEL FRONT RESIDES WITH STRONGER LLJ VEERING
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...BUT WONT TAKE
MUCH FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH AND POPS REFLECT
CHANCES EVERYWHERE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE WEST AND SOUTH. STORMS
COULD BRING STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
COMPLEX.

MON-THURS...NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS LEAVES HIGH
PRESSURE AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S AND PRECIP TAKES A BREAK MON/TUES.
SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW FAST OR HOW STRONG NEXT WAVE SHIFTS
EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR STORMS BACK INTO
EASTERN KS...WILL CARRY SLT TO CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS PM.
TEMPERATURES ALSO ON THE RISE AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS SW WITH HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DECREASING WINDS AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

JL


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...LEIGHTON