Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 131137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

The upper level trough that moved across the plains Friday morning
has now moved east across the Great Lakes States and OH river
valley. The mid to upper flow will become zonal through Today and
Tonight.

Early this morning a broad surface ridge extended from eastern NE,
southwest across much of eastern and central KS. Temperatures at 200
AM CDT, ranged from the the mid 30s to lower 40s across the CWA. LWC
was the cold spot at 36 degrees. Patchy dense fog may develop along
river valleys, low-lying areas and near lakes. The ground fog will
mix out an hour afternoon sunrise. Along with the patchy fog, some
areas may see patchy front, mainly north of I-70. Elevated surfaces
have the best chance for frost formation, since ground temperatures
remain warm.

Today and Tonight, the surface ridge across KS will slowly drift
east into MO through the day. Light surface winds this morning will
gradually become southeasterly by afternoon at 5 to 10 MPH. Even
with full insolation, highs will only reach the lower to mid 60s
across the CWA. Light southerly winds should keep overnight lows a
bit warmer with low temperatures only dropping into the lower to mid
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

As the southerly low level flow on the backside of the high pressure
to the East increases on Sunday...warm air advection will increase
as well. As a result...afternoon highs should warm about 10 to 15
degrees above the highs today...or range from the lower 70s far
northeast corner to the upper 70s in the Abilene area. Clouds will
slowly be on the increase from west to east...but are not expected
to thicken enough to have a dramatic effect on the high temps.

This will be a different story Sunday night as the better combination
of moisture/warm air advections and forcing ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough develop through the night...mainly after
midnight...and continue into Monday just ahead of the approaching
front from the north. Have therefore split the Sunday night pops to
only slight chance/chance pops in the evening and then increase to
higher chance and likely pops across the area overnight into
Monday...again mainly across the northern and eastern counties. Total
rainfall amounts should generally range from a tenth to a third of
of an inch across the county warning area...although locally higher
amounts are certainly possible. Either way...precip chances will
still taper off north to south across the cwa into Monday
afternoon and night as the front and drier air gradually filter
into the area from the north. With the precip...clouds and front
on Monday...highs could be a challenge...and have tweaked downward
from the upper 60s far northern counties to mid 70s east central.

A dry forecast still on track for Tuesday with a possible mid week
wave on Wednesday bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms. Otherwise
models then differ on how they handle the eastward advancement of
the next significant upper trough through the end of the work week.
Have leaned towards the EC which is the slowest and keeps precip to
the west of the area Thursday into Friday as the upper trough
stalls in the inter-mountain west. Have therefore keep the fcst dry
for now...but steadily warmed highs through the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Ground fog with LIFR visibilities and vertical visibilities less
than 200 feet will continue at terminals of KTOP and KMHK through
14Z. The ground fog may drift around the runways at times
improving visibilities at times. After 14Z expect VFR conditions
at all terminals through 12Z SUN.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan






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