Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 010806
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into
southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low
will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE
will be less than 300 J/KG...thus any thunderstorm that manages to
develop will be weak. The northern terr counties across the CWA will
see the best chance for scattered showers. Along and south of I-70
may stay dry through the day. Surface winds will become west-
southwesterly through the morning hours then veer more to the west-
northwest by late afternoon. Highs Today will be cool once again
with most areas across the CWA only getting into the 50s. The
eastern counties may see mid to upper 60s with southwest surface
winds remaining for much of the afternoon hours. If there are breaks
in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer.

Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther
counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual
moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5
low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards
I-70 after midnight.|

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

By Monday, an upper level trough will be located directly over
northeast Kansas bringing slight chances for very light scattered
rain showers for most of the area that afternoon.  Lift and
saturation begin to decrease that evening, ending chances for any
further precipitation into Monday night.  The trough begins shift
southeast Tuesday, however, as it passes models indicate the best
moisture remains either northwest or southeast of the area so have
kept the forecast dry for this timeframe.  From here, surface high
pressure and upper level riding keep conditions quiet through
Friday.  Temperatures look to stay fairly steady though the week
with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the mid to upper 40s.
Next chances for precipitation begin Friday night when a expansive
upper level trough moves over the western US ejecting a series of
waves across the area.  With models indicating a decent amount of
instability and moisture across the area, thunderstorms will be
likely.  Southerly winds Friday through Sunday help to warm
temperatures slightly back into the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

For the 06z TAFs, ceilings should remain VFR overnight. Latest
short range models have been delaying the return of MVFR cigs to
around mid-morning now for the TAF sites, and these MVFR cigs
should persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Cannot rule
out the potential for some scattered IFR cigs during the afternoon
as well. With a mid-level low shifting eastward over the area,
expect winds to shift from west to northwest through the daytime
hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke


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