Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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838
FXUS63 KTOP 032109
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper low over Mexico
with a short wave trough moving across the Northern and Central
Plains this afternoon. Another shortwave trough was moving out of
the Rockies as well as out of the base of the upper low into the
Central and Southern Plains at 20Z. A surface high pressure remains
off to the east over Illinois with a dry easterly flow into
northeast and east central Kansas. Better moisture has moved into
north central and central Kansas this afternoon and is expected to
gradually spread eastward. Periods of light snow and light rain have
continued across north central Kansas in area of isentropic lift and
frontogenesis in the 850 to 500mb layer. Snow amounts have been
generally around an inch and has accumulated on grassy areas across
Republic county. Thermal profiles suggest a rain and snow mix or
light snow for far north central Kansas tonight. Further east across
northeast and east central Kansas expect precipitation in the form of
rain. The rain will mix with snow on the backside of the system
later tonight. Best deep layer forcing will occur ahead of the
approaching trough this evening through 10Z Sunday. The
precipitation should come to an end by mid morning in east central
Kansas. Additional snowfall amounts in the north central counties
will generally be around an inch or less. Lows tonight will only
cool into the lower 30s in north central to the upper 30s east.
Sunday will see decreasing clouds through the morning with mostly
sunny skies in the afternoon. High mainly in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Sunday night and Monday look to stay dry as a southern stream low
lifts northeast just south of the northeast Kansas and a northern
stream trough axis only digs as far as Nebraska.  Southerly flow
keeps Mondays high temperatures in the lower 50s as the area remains
between these two systems.  A strong push of cold air moves across
Kansas early Tuesday morning, shifting winds from the north
northwest and dropping highs to the mid and upper 30s for Tuesday.
Models look to be too dry for any chances for precipitation with
this frontal passage.

Looks like there is some better consistency between the models in
terms of timing for chances for snow Wednesday.  Precipitation
chances begin after midnight Tuesday night in central Kansas and
continuing with the highest chances across northeast Kansas
Wednesday morning.  The GFS is slightly more south with the highest
QPF amounts than the ECMWF, which brings the bulk of precipitation
over the entire area.  With such cold air in place, anything falling
will stay in the form of snow.  GFS is still the quickest to exit
the area by early evening Wednesday, while the ECMWF lags into the
night.  For now, have precipitation ending after midnight on
Wednesday night.  The rest of the period looks to be dry.

Temperatures will be bitterly cold Wednesday and Thursday,
especially during the overnight hours.  Highs both of these days top
out in the 20s, with lows near single digit values both nights. Wind
chill values are expected to dip into the negatives for the first
time this season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

VFR conditions will gradually become mvfr at the terminals from
MHK to TOP and FOE from 20Z to 03Z as precipitation increases
across the area. Lowest vsbys and cigs are expected after 05Z with
MVFR/IFR but predominately more IFR after 07Z. A change from IFR
to VFR cigs is expected in the 14Z to 17Z time period on Sunday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53



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