Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 200502
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1202 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloud cover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Visibility is expected to decrease through 12Z although much better
than previous nights as persistent SSW winds and mid clouds should
keep vis above 3SM. FOE may have the best chance for brief IFR
vis between 09Z and 12Z, while MHK seems likely to remain VFR and
perhaps approach MVFR by 12Z. Winds may gust a bit between 14Z and
16Z but should become steady in the 11-15 kt range by late
morning. A front will approach TAF sites by around 22Z with
scattered thunderstorms potentially developing. Do not expect
widespread coverage, but all TAF sites will see a chance of TS
mainly between 22Z and 02Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






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