Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
FXUS63 KTOP 261140
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014
Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW IA this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast KS the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central KS. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast KS for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014
Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
central plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern KS during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 MPH
across the eastern half of the CWA to 10 to 15 MPH across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central KS. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.
Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A lee surface trough across the high plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and central
plains to become southerly. Low-level WAA will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the CWA early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
CWA dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the CWA, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.
Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the CWA. The winds will be light but Highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the CWA with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the CWA.
Tuesday, another H5 trough will move east across the northern
plains. this will bring a front southward across the CWA during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014
Winds will turn out of the northwest shortly after sunrise with gusts
increasing to 25-30 kts at times. Latest guidance is suggesting
that the MVFR cigs possibly stay northeast of the taf sites.
Upstream observations reveal the only incoming MVFR cigs are in
north central NE, which have a trajatory that is north of the sites.
At the moment the taf sites may only be clipped by the stratus
deck for a brief period late morning and early afternoon.