Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 202317

National Weather Service Topeka KS
617 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Mid level trough axis continues to translate eastward this afternoon
while a drier airmass upstream filters southward into northeast
Kansas. Most of the stratus deck has dissipated to the south with
some diurnal cumulus noted over north central areas. As the center
of the sfc ridge axis enters northern Kansas within the next few
hours, northerly winds will calm through the evening. Expect to see
clearing skies as temperatures quickly drop back into the 40s by
midnight. Some uncertainty on how well the low levels decouple
overnight as light northerly winds veer towards the south by
sunrise. Short term HRRR and RAP are not as cool with readings near
40 degrees while the MOS guidance is trending towards the middle 30s.
Went closer to MOS, especially with the calm winds and clear skies.
Patchy frost is possible generally east of highway 75 through

On Friday, dry northwest flow builds into the region at 500 mb.
Sfc trough deepens east into the western high plains, enhancing the
southerly winds over north central KS. Speeds between 15 and 20 mph
sustained are expected with gusts in excess of 25 mph possible.
Elsewhere, 10 to 15 mph sustained with gusts around 20 mph is
likely. Slightly better mixing with sunshine throughout the day
should result in highs from the lower 60s east to upper 60s west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Sfc high pressure will slide off to the east Friday night leading
to warmer and windy conditions through Sat night. A weak cold
front will sag into the region on Sunday however lack of moisture
and large scale forcing will keep conditions dry and the only
impact will be a decrease in winds on Sunday. Return flow with
increasing south winds will establish across the region on Monday
with the next shortwave still forecast to move across the area
next Tues and Weds. Sufficient moisture should return to allow
some precip to develop ahead of the wave and associated sfc front
mainly Tues night into early Weds.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. There may be
occasional wind gusts around 20 kts during the day tomorrow
especially at MHK.




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