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000
FXUS63 KTOP 101712
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1212 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Another beautiful spring-like day is in store today with warm
temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions expected through the
day and into tonight. Early this morning, a surface trough and wind
shift extended from northeast Nebraska into northwest Kansas. This
trough will drift into northeast Kansas this morning but will become
ill defined as surface pressure falls this afternoon across the
western Plains. The rather weak pressure gradient supports light
winds through most of the day, varying in direction from southwest
to northwest (in north central KS) and back to south by this
evening. There is a fair amount of moisture aloft contributing to
broken high clouds early this morning...and this typically thin
cloud cover will hang around for much of the day but should not be
sufficient to limit diurnal heating. A warm start in the 40s this
morning along with continued warm advection on top of the warm air
in place yesterday suggests an even warmer day today. While winds
will be lighter, ample sunshine and surface warming should
contribute to a well mixed boundary layer. This will add to the
warming and should also tap a drier airmass above the boundary layer
to drop afternoon dewpoints quite a bit. Expect high temperatures
today mainly in the middle to perhaps upper 70s across the area
while the lowest RH this afternoon will probably range from 18 to 23
percent. Luckily winds will be mainly less than 10 mph but may still
have areas of very high fire danger particularly in east central KS
where some of the higher gusts 15 to 20 mph may briefly occur. A
cold front will approach the area overnight, just reaching the NE/KS
border by sunrise. Should keep a breeze overnight with low
temperatures remaining rather warm in the lower to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest. Models show this trough
tracking southeastward across the Rockies tonight and into the
Central Plains on Tuesday. This advancing trough will help to push a
cold front southward through the area on Tuesday, and the models are
definitely getting a better handle on the timing of this frontal
passage. 00z model runs show the front starting to move into far
north central Kansas between 09z-12z Tuesday, progressing into east
central Kansas by around 18z before finally exiting south of the
area around 00z. As a result, expect locations in far east central
Kansas to remain under southwesterly surface winds for much of the
day while winds should quickly shift to the northeast behind the
front across north central and far northeast Kansas. Models continue
to show a very tight pressure gradient developing behind this
frontal passage as surface high pressure comes surging into the
region. These northeasterly winds are expected to quickly increase
to 20-30mph with gusts upwards of 30-40mph possible, so cannot rule
out the potential that some locations across far northern Kansas
could be approaching wind advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon. These
gusty northerly winds will advect colder air into the region through
the day, so have a non-diurnal temperature trend for Tuesday.
Locations in northern Kansas will reach there high temperatures
early in the day with highs in the low/mid 50s, while locations in
far east central Kansas should be able to warm up into the upper
60s/low 70s with the southerly flow. Lift increases behind the front
so expect some post-frontal precipitation with this system, however
model soundings continue to show fairly shallow moisture profiles
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Deeper saturation looks
to occur late evening and overnight, however during that time the
lift looks to diminish over the area. As a result, do not anticipate
much QPF from this system. In general, models show light rain
developing near the Nebraska/Kansas border by late afternoon or
early evening, but some models are showing the potential for some
scattered precipitation to develop over east central Kansas as well
as some low-level frontogenesis increases directly behind the front.
Model soundings show some weak elevated instability over this area
which could support some isolated thunderstorms, however there still
looks to be a decent enough cap in place so have not included any
mention of thunder in the forecast at this time but will need to
continue to watch. With the decrease in lift overnight, expect
precipitation to diminish before finally exiting the area by
Wednesday morning. However, with temperatures dropping into the
upper 20s/low 30s Wednesday morning, could see some of this
precipitation transition over the snow late evening and overnight,
especially over northern Kansas. However, do not anticipate much in
the way of accumulation.

Breezy northerly winds will still be in place for Wednesday, keeping
temperatures cooler in the mid/upper 40s and possibly near 50.
However, as surface high pressure tracks south of the area Wednesday
night, southerly flow will return on Thursday with temperatures
rebounding back into the upper 50s/low 60s. A weak front will move
through the area on Friday, but don`t anticipate much of a cool-down
as highs should be similar to Thursday. Saturday into Sunday, a
mid-level trough looks to develop over the northern Rockies and dive
southward into the Central Plains. This approaching system will
bring a chance for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday as well
as slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs into the upper
40s/low 50s. Most of this precipitation should stay in the form of
rain, but cannot rule out the potential for a brief rain/snow mix
Sunday morning, especially across northern Kansas, with forecast
lows looking to be in the low/mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR conditions expected to prevail through 18Z Tue due to dry air
in the lower atmosphere. Will need to watch out for low level wind
shear overnight as the low level jet increases. Forecast soundings
show a sharper inversion setting up but winds at the top of the
inversion aren`t quite as strong.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters