Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 210453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Currently, WV and Vis sat imagery shows a mid-latitude cyclone
moving into the Great Lakes region with associated cold front
trailing to the southwest through the Ozarks into OK and the
Southern Plains region.  Northwest to zonal flow resides over the
Central Plains with another Pacific trough over the Pac Northwest
into the Northern Rockies region.

Rest of today will remain dry and cooler with weak low level CAA
still working through the region.  Temps will top out in the upper
60s.  Lows tonight will cool into the mid 40s.

For Friday, much of the day period should remain dry with only very
small chances for precip into the late afternoon hours, but some
higher chances over very southern counties of the CWA. Highs should
remain on the cooler side with cloud cover overspreading the area in
advance of the previously mentioned North Pac trough diving south
into the Southern Rockies before deepening as it pulls back into the
southern Central Plains. Almost all short-term guidance, and even
longer term guidance, has come into better agreement with a more
southerly track to the developing system.  Focus for ascent is also
to the south of the forecast area. Therefore, have slightly delayed
and shifted higher precip chances to the south.  Expecting the most
likely areas for precip remain largely along and south of I-70 as
the late afternoon progresses. Most forecast soundings also suggest
the atmosphere over the forecast area may be slow to saturate, so
feel that much of Friday afternoon should be free of too many
concerns weather wise.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Friday night the surface low will be over southeast Oklahoma with an
inverted trough extending north into southeast Kansas. The 850 mb
frontal boundary sets up across southern Kansas with the highest
qpf expected near and south of east central Kansas. Models
continue to trend slightly south with the axis of higher qpf and
corresponding frontogenetic forecasting. Main forcing with the
upper trough shifts off to the east after 09Z Saturday with
precipitation chances gradually decreasing through the day on
Saturday. Have decided to hold off on a flood watch with higher
rainfall amounts anticipated further south of the cwa. High
pressure builds into the central Plains for Saturday night and
Sunday. Will see temperatures cool into the upper 30s Sunday
morning. Highs Sunday will average near normal in the upper 60s.
For the rest of the week a nearly zonal flow sets up with energy
ejecting out across the Plains in the Tuesday to early Wednesday
may bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Near the
end of next week a deepening western U.S. upper trough ejecting
out into the western high plains late Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

VFR conditions are likely for much of the TAF period. Northeast
winds increase with gusts to 20-25 kts after 15Z. May also see a
few showers near TAF sites through much of the day, but with the
best chance late in the TAF period when more widespread rain and
perhaps a few storms should impact all TAF sites.




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