Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 141642
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1042 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

LL MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD. LL
EASTERLY FLOW WITH CONTINUED POS THETA-E ADV WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA THROUGH TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY ADV WILL SUPPORT CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. UPDATED
SKY COVER/DROPPED HIGHS/AND ADJUSTED WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA. LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS PRODUCING
SOME ACCAS OVER NC NEB/SC SD.

MID/HIGH PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
SUPPORTING CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY SOME MID CLOUDS. LOW-MID LEVEL
POSITIVE THETA-E ADV COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS SCENTRAL SD THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. DUE TO DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO MORE THAN 20.
OTHERWISE...COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND COLORADO.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





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