Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 251734
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1134 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSETTLED WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE FA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LL BAROCLINIC ZONE COUPLED WITH
IMPULSE LADEN NW FLOW IS SUPPORTING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MT
INTO WY...WITH THE EXTREME FAR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. LL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK EAST TONIGHT...SUPPORTING
A QUASI-WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE THE FRONT...SUPPORTING PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING EXPECTED THU MORNING
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS AS A LIFTING UPPER JET STREAKS SUPPORTS
ENHANCED LIFT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MOSTLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED IN THE FA WITH A DRY POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NE WY
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PER
STEEP LL LAPSE RATES/DIURNAL HEATING/AND JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LL
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONGER IMPULSE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
SUPPORT A FGEN BAND ACROSS NW SD. LIGHT SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH INITIAL ONSET MAY BE DELAYED GIVEN VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD CONDS AND HIGH CENTER FORCING. OPTED FOR HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELIES ACROSS FAR NW SD LAT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...COOL CONDS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY 40S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR
LOWS.

THUR...LIFTING JET STEAK AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW CHANCES THU MORNING ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS. A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMS OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE SD PLAINS THUR MORNING...WITH A COUPLE
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
PROMOTE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY
EXPECTED...ESP JUST WEST OF THE MAIN FGEN BAND...NE WY/THE BH/AND
FAR WESTERN SD. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN SD AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR THIS. RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THUR NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS
THUR NIGHT. COOL CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 40S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.

COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS NE WY AND WRN SD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
MAINLY TO WRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WRN SD THU MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE BLKHKLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...13






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