Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 230316
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1016 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.UPDATE FOR 06Z TAF...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS HEAVIER SNOW BAND LOCATION AND
ONGOING HEADLINE.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SNOW BAND DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAT EARLIER. IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MN RIVER VALLEY...TO THE SOUTH METRO AND TOWARD OWATONNA AND KENYON.
4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK LIKELY IN THAT REGION. ELSEWHERE A GENERAL 2
TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 IN MN AND WI.

MODELS TREND BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH INTO THIS REGION
OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD
LIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
EXITING WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE IN THE .40 TO .50 INCH RANGE AND THERE WAS AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE EARLIER IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE OR SLANTWISE CONVECTION POSSIBILITY ALONG THE BAND
INTO THE EVENING. WONT GIVE UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCH AN
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IF CONVECTION OCCURS.

COOLER AND REMAINING MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE KEPT DOWN IN AREAS SEEING HEAVIER SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY LOOK QUIET IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE OVER
SERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND THE OTHER OVER WRN KS. HOW MODELS
EVOLVE BEYOND THIS POINT IS MORE INCONSISTENT AND LEADS TO AN
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN TO
CONSOLIDATE VORTICITY AND DEEPEN THE EQUATORWARD MID LEVEL
WAVE...RESULTING IN A DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH CYCLONE THAT TRACKS
FROM ERN KS TO SRN WI. PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT IS NOT THE QUESTION
AS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTTOM LINE...IT
WILL PRECIPITATE EVERYWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK RESULTS IN GREATER CAA AND A
COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE. THE PROFILE STILL LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF A TURN OVER TO ALL
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWESTERN
WI. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE OF THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST ELEMENT
AND WILL DEPEND ON MANY FACTORS THAT ARE THEMSELVES STILL
UNCERTAIN SUCH AS TIMING...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND INTENSITY. DO HAVE A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST
PLACES...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE DONE AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND COULD KEEP SOME PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW GOING...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-94. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED
FOR THESE PERIODS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST LATE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE CWA LIKELY GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ARE SHOWING
PRETTY STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MN...INCLUDING
MSP AND RWF...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ENDING AROUND 08-10Z.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS. CIGS AND VIS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AT OTHER TERMINALS IN CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI...WHERE LITTLE TO NO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. AFTER THE SNOW
MOVES OUT OF OUR REGION...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...SNOW INTENSITY WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND LIKELY END BETWEEN 08-10Z TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE SNOW. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH -RA LATE. WINDS SE 15G20 KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS W 15G25 KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ049-051-
     055>063-065>070-075>078-083>085-093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ023-024-026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...ADL



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