Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 141156
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure prevailing
over much of the lower 48 states, save for low pressure center
over TX and a departing low from New England into the Canadian
maritimes. A low pressure center is fixated just south of Hudson
Bay with a cold front extending westward into the Canadian
Rockies. Aloft, northwest flow continues over the north-central
states around a large low pressure center rotating over central
Canada while a sharp ridge axis linger in the western CONUS. The
upper level low is progged to shift SSE into the Great Lakes by
this evening, sharpening the flow between it and the western
ridge. This will also bring a shortwave axis around the western
fringes of the low through MN/WI later today. In conjunction with
these upper level features, the aforementioned cold front will be
nudged southwest through the rest, akin to a "backdoor" cold
front. This will result in mainly an increase in cloud cover due
to the overall lack of low-level moisture, although a few isolated
rain/snow showers are possible in interior portions of western
WI. The trough and front will swing through by late this evening
and allow high pressure to regain control, thus allowing for
clearing skies overnight through tomorrow morning. More
seasonable, but still above normal, temperatures are expected with
the cold frontal passage. Highs will it the mid 30s to lower 40s
today followed by lows dropping into the teens tonight. The low
temperatures tonight will be the coldest temperatures we will then
experience for some time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Record temperatures are likely late this week through early next
week.

The main features of the long term is the large ridge that builds
in late this week through this weekend, and the strong low
pressure system that develops to our west at the end of the
weekend, likely brining rain to our area early next week.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...the interface between the large
upper trough to the east and ridge to the west will bisect our
area with warmest temps to the west and coolest to the east. In
fact, western MN will likely see highs in the low 40s, while
western WI only reaches the upper 20s. Skies should begin clearing
from west to east as the ridge and anticyclonic dry flow push in.

Thursday-Saturday...a very warm period is still in store for our
area. Record highs will certainly be in jeopardy across the Upper
Midwest. The upper ridge slowly progresses eastward with the
thermal ridge peaking on Friday across southern MN and west
central WI. This along with full sunshine will make for a very
warm day as temperatures soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s
across the area. Winds will turn northwesterly by Saturday as a
front moves through, but still expect very warm temps in the lower
to mid 50s.

Sunday-Monday...This period becomes more active and remains very
warm. The key feature will be a developing low pressure system
that will will reach the Dakotas by Monday and advance northeast
toward Hudson Bay from there. We`ll be in a solid warm/moist
southerly flow regime ahead of this system so we still expect
rapidly rising dew points Sunday night with overnight lows in the
40s likely breaking records. Rain is likely Monday along and ahead
of the cold front associated with the surface low that will move
toward Hudson Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

High clouds are streaming in from the northwest in advance of an
upper level disturbance drifting SSE from central Canada on its
way to the Great Lakes. Clouds will steadily fill in and lower to
mid-level ceilings. Not expecting MVFR ceilings for this
afternoon. In addition, any precipitation associated with a cold
front dropping south in advance of the upper level low will hold
off to the east to have kept all TAFs dry. Some partial clearing
is expected later this evening into the early morning hours then
additional cloud cover will drop in prior to daybreak. There is a
chance that this additional cloud cover could drop into MVFR
levels...but have kept levels at BKN035 at this point. Only other
concern will be breezy NW winds through this afternoon which will
diminish this evening. No visibility restrictions.

KMSP...VFR through tonight then some potential for MVFR ceilings
by the morning push on Wednesday. Ceilings not expected to drop
below 2000ft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



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