Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 052028
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
228 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The short term concern is cloud/flurry trend into the evening and
then timing of the next short wave trough dropping south over the
area Wednesday.

Clouds and flurries remain over the eastern cwa this afternoon as
the cold trough exits to the east. This should be the trend into
the evening. May See some residual flurries/snow showers over
northwest Wisconsin as HIRES solutions continue to show flow off
Lake Superior into Wednesday. Will develop some lower end PoPs to
the northeast and spread those west and south into Wednesday as
the next trough moves south. BUFKIT overview profiles showing
abundant lower level moisture with moisture in the DGZ as this
moves through. Believe we will see some snow shower/flurry
activity and we could see a dusting with this. Winds will diminish
some this evening before picking up again later tonight into
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The longer term trends remain on the cool side with the
north/northwest flow continuing with the eastern CONUS trough in
control. Periodic cold fronts will drop south in the flow pattern
every 24 hours or so with small end chances for some light
snow/flurries. This looks best later Thursday night into Friday
and again later Sunday. We could see brief warming ahead of this
next cold front with readings warming through the 30s possible.
After that, we should trend colder again into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

MVFR cigs with wdly sct -shsn remain over the northeast cwa. We
expect erosion of this area from west to east this afternoon and
becoming vfr. Later tonight secondary trough will drop over the
area with increasing lower level clouds and threat of more -shsn
and mVFR cigs develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly
over eastern areas. Gusty nw-w winds continue through the
afternoon diminishing to the southwest by late afternoon as a
clipper system drops southeast over SODAK and western IA. Gusty
west/nw winds to continue into Wednesday as well.

KMSP...May see MVFR cigs into early afternoon with passing -shsn.
Expect a general vfr trend into tonight with possible MVFR cigs
-shsn returning during the day Wednesday. Continue the gusty w-nw
 winds through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...VFR. MVFR possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
Thu...VFR. MVFR possible late with Chc -SN.Wind NW 5-10kts.
Fri...VFR. MVFR possible early with Slgt Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE



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