Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 041101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG SHOWS A CDFNT NOW
S OF MN AND MOVING THRU SRN WI...ESSENTIALLY S OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA. THIS HAS ALLOWED ANY AND ALL LATE EVENING PRECIP IN ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO SHIFT WELL SE OF THE AREA AND FOR SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT AROUND A SHARP TROF OVER
ERN NOAM WILL MAKE FOR POIGNANT CAA TDA THRU TNGT ACRS THE
AREA...AND ALSO AID IN BRINGING IN CANADIAN HIGH PRES ATOP THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. EVEN WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER...THE NOTICEABLE CAA WILL DROP MAX TEMPS TDA ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YDA...WITH HIGHS TDA ONLY HITTING THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S. ONLY A MILD BREEZE EARLY THIS MRNG WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM BOTTOMING OUT FURTHER...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO
LGT/VRBL TMRW NIGHT WITH EFFICIENT DECOUPLING AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE COOL...CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST FORMATION IN FAR
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THU MRNG...SINCE TEMPERATURES THERE
LOOK TO DROP TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO
RUN WITH A FROST ADVY FOR RUSK...CHIPPEWA AND EAU CLAIR COUNTIES.
GOING WWD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH NO FROST EXPECTED.
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE N DURG THE EARLY MRNG HRS THU
MRNG BUT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO FAR N TO BE OF
ANY CONSEQUENCE TO THE MPX CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A
HOT ONE...AND KEPT THE 90S GOING OUT IN WESTERN MN FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT IMPRESS. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHEN IT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO
PREDICT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOUCH 90 IN WESTERN MN...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMPARE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE MAY 06 2000 WHICH BROUGHT UPPER 80S TO ST CLOUD MN. HOWEVER
THE DEWPOINT SHOULD BE LOWER IN THIS CASE...WHICH FAVORS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE...SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHICH DOES WILL IN THESE
RUN-AWAY TEMPERATURE SETUPS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
STILL TRY TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT PASSES...
BUT THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS CLOSER TO
LAKE SUPERIOR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT THIS
DECREASES AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL WITH THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...AND DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT TO GET
THROUGH THE CAP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW SHOULD EMERGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT IS AIDED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THIS WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFT
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF 04.00 IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. CONTINUED WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TIMING OF THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GETS PUSHED BACK WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...CREATING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL
PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO THE 15G25KT AREA THIS AFTN. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ATOP THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STEADILY DROP OFF...BECOMING
LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THRU THU MRNG. SOLID HIGH-CONFIDENCE VFR.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. GUSTY N WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN...LASTING THRU EARLY EVE
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC



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