Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
418 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers are expected across
portions of southern/central Minnesota and western Wisconsin
through Tuesday. The QPF will be light across the forecast area
as we will largely remain in the dry slot locally for the next
couple days.

A 975mb low has been nearly stationary in southeast ND this
afternoon. On the cold side of the system (in the western
Dakotas), widespread snow and winds gusting between 30-50 mph has
been observed. Locally, we are in the warm sector of this system
and are seeing near record highs where the dry slot cleared the
cloud cover today - along with breezy southerly winds. A line of
shallow convection has been slowly sliding east this afternoon. It
gave much of MN small hail this morning and reported tornadoes in
central Iowa this afternoon. It`s a classic high-shear, low
instability environemnt in IA this afternoon. Besides the wind
and cloud cover, this system will not have much in the way of
impacts locally. The surface low will slowly fill and slide east
across MN through the day tomorrow - this will wrap a bit more
precipitation into central and western MN. Likely in the form of a
rain/snow mix. Little in the way of snow accumulation is expected given
the warm temperatures and low snowfall rates. The next couple days
will be cloudy.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Cyclonic flow and a light rain/snow mix will linger across the
forecast area on Wednesday. Nearly all locations will see light
precipitation at some point but there will be little in the way
of accumulation. Near normal temperatures will linger through the
week with a better chance for sunshine by the end of the week
when high pressure builds in from the Dakotas. There could be a
few high clouds on the north side of the upper jet. The long term
is fairly quiet until late in the weekend and early next week when
a Gulf Low lifts across the mid Mississippi River Valley and
toward the Great Lakes - at least off the 12Z ECMWF. The 12z GFS
solution is a little more ambiguous with the trough swinging across
the central US in a couple pieces - northern and southern stream.
Still need some time to get a clearer solution with this system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A vertically stacked low pressure system along the Dakotas/MN
border will move little during the TAF period. MVFR/IFR ceilings
around the low will keep KAXN and KRWF down with bouts of light
precipitation. An occluded front from the low curving down across
eastern MN will move slowly eastward this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA
along the front will be east of KMSP by 18z. This activity should
reach KRNH by mid afternoon due to the slow eastward movement.
KEAU will see a separate area SHRA develop late this afternoon and
spread northeast through the evening with MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities. In between is a dry slot that will cover KSTC early
this afternoon before the low ceilings to west move in. This
clearing will also overspread the Twin Cities early this afternoon
and persist into this evening before MVFR or lower ceilings spread
in after 06z. Rather brisk SSE winds this afternoon 15-25 knots
diminishing to 10 knots tonight.

KMSP...SHRA and isolated TSRA will be east of the airfield by 19z.
VFR conditions for the afternoon as a dry slot spreads in from
the west. MVFR ceilings expected to return late in the night and
last through the day Tuesday.

Wed...MVFR/IFR. Chc -RA/-SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...MVFR/IFR. Chc -RA/-SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
fri...MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.



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