Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 292204
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...AND LOW TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOED THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE BAJA. CLOSER TO
HOME....SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AN CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO COULD SEE
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROP BELOW ZERO..BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THETA_E ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE BUFFALO
RIDGE...AND MID TEENS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER...HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL NEXT
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.  THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
WEAK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND IS NOW LOOKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
OF PREVIOUS RUNS.

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING WE`LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WE`LL
ALSO BE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS NORTHERN WAVE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MOVES
EAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES DURING THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE...THIS ONE THOUGH WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR WEST AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FURTHER WEST...KEEPING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  POPS REMAIN IN PLACE THERE...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED THEM FURTHER NORTH.  THE ECMWF HELD ON TO A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION...BUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR
WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE...WHICH OFFERS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION.

BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE INDICATING A MODEST PACIFIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT...LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM EXISTS.  IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUR WAY...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DIRECT HIT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



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