Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 191824
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
124 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...For 18z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Early this morning, showers and thunderstorms are on the
diminishing trend and are gradually exiting the area to the east.
Once this precip exits the area, scattered showers can`t be ruled
out throughout the morning, but the remainder of the morning
should be dry for most. With the frontal boundary still lingering
across our south and the upper trough digging through the Dakotas,
shortwave energy out ahead of the main trough, precip chances will
increase this afternoon from west to east and become more focused
to our southeast tonight along the front.

Cooler temperatures can be expected today under mostly cloudy
skies, but dew points will remain elevated compared to the coming
weekend. For tonight, continued chances for showers under large
upper level trough.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Fall-like weather compared to what we`ve seen lately is in store
for Saturday as dew points fall through the 50s through the day,
and northwest winds of 10-15mph bring in cooler air as highs will
be limited to the upper 60s across much of the area. In addition,
widespread low stratus with showers possible especially farther
east will highlight the weather for Saturday. Expect mostly cloudy
skies with showers and much cooler air than we`re used to. Dew
points will decrease further by Sunday, into the 40s as high
pressure pushes in from the northwest.

The cool down doesn`t last too long though as return flow sets up
Monday and we start seeing an increase in heat and dew points by
Tuesday. Yet another interface along a cool front and warm & moist
air ahead of it looks to setup midweek which accounts for the
increased POPs during that time period. That cold front will move
through by late in the week and predominant northwesterly flow
could bring a cool down to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Sct-bkn mvfr clouds will plague the sites this afternoon, with
showers affecting primarily western/northern sites
(KAXN/KRWF/KSTC) this afternoon. A more solid area of showers,
possibly with a few claps of thunder, will move in overnight and
Saturday morning. Expect widespread MVFR conditions on Saturday
morning. Northwest winds AOB 10kts will prevail through the
period.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR with morning MVFR Cigs possible. Winds NW 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds S 10-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Winds S 12-15 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS



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