Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
349 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The warmth begins arriving today.  The deeply amplified ridge is
pushing east across the Upper Midwest bringing an extremely warm
airmass with it.  Highs today will be in the mid 50s across western
MN, upper 40s in eastern MN, and upper 30s to lower 40s across
western WI.  The north to south oriented low level thermal gradient
will gradually progress eastward through the entire short-term
period, which is why western MN will see the warmer temps first.

No precipitation is expected this period and skies will see passing
mid and high level cloud cover.  Southeast winds will generally be 5-
10 MPH today, and lighter tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

All systems remain a go for April-like temperatures for virtually
all of the long term. Model solutions remain consistent on upper
level ridging being the main feature ahead. A short wave will lift
northeast from the southwestern United States early next week,
bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the region for
Monday/Monday night.

Once again we raised lows/highs for all periods over what Forecast
Builder delivered. Our WModel, which is a dynamic blend of the
best three verification products, was used to populate the
aforementioned fields. Looking at individual guidance, the ECMWF,
Canadian and EKDMOS offer the warmest temperatures through the
period and made up quite a bit of the WModel through the long
term. It`s interesting that the EKDMOS is the MOS output from the
NAEFS, which is made of up the Canadian ensemble and the GFS
ensemble. This product has been a top performer over the past 15
days. A check on the high temperatures forecast through the period
using mix-down from 925mb with no super yields highs very similar
to those from the WModel. In fact, we are still a degree or two
on the low side of mix-down for Monday through Wednesday of next
week. So there`s potentially still some room to raise highs.

Record highs are likely for Friday and Monday and may be set or
tied on Saturday and Sunday as well. This goes right along with
the record warm stretch that occurred in 1981. As for lows, record
warm minimums are possible Saturday morning through Wednesday
morning. The forecast low Monday morning of 45 for MSP is a record
and could challenge the warmest minimum temperature recorded at
MSP for February, which is 44 degrees.

The warmth will not last forever, and change is seen beyond the
long term when a low pressure system is progged to move across the
region next Friday/Saturday. The GFS has the perfect snowstorm
for us while the ECMWF is a little warmer with mainly rain. The
Canadian is well to the south, which is a trend we have seen this
winter. The 00z CFS is in between the GFS and Canadian with the
low passing across KS/MO. This system will show up with the next
cycle of Forecast Builder and it will be interesting to see if we
are dealt likely to categorical pops for late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR with no aviation weather concerns tonight or tomorrow.


VFR with no aviation weather concerns tonight or tomorrow.

FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind WNW at 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SSE at 5-10 kts.




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