Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 281755
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN CLOUD COVER TODAY AND EXTENT OF WARMING
TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH 48HRS.  THE WYOMING TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THIS WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW INTO IOWA BY EVENING.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE
MOVES EAST AND WILL HELP DRAW COLDER AIR OVER ALL BU THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 12Z THU.  THROUGH THE DAY...CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
MAIN FACTOR DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.  IF WE SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO
THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOWER TO MID 40S THERE.  IF WE
MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER...MID-UPPER 30S WILL BE THE RULE.

THERE IS SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT...AND IT
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE SOME ICE DEVELOPING AS THE SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING UNTIL THAT ICE
ARRIVES THROUGH 06Z.  THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE A VERY LIGHT COATING COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER END POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FOR NOW.  TEMPERATURES WONT COOL OFF THROUGH THE 20S UNTIL
AFTER 06Z FOR THE MOST PART...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH THE
PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER
THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON A BREEZY NOTE...AS A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD A NEARLY
STEADY TO SLIGHTLY FALLING DIURNAL TEMP TREND ON THURSDAY. WEST
CENTRAL WI COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES LINGERING ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH EXITS...BUT
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY 18Z.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY...AND BRINGS DRY
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS. HEIGHT REDUCTIONS OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI AND FAR EAST CENTRAL MN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A GREAT
LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL YIELD COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S
RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SWRN MN.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO NORTHERN IA. SNOWFALL CHANCES APPEAR
THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN WI. PER THE 00Z.28
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE MPX CWA REALLY APPEARS TO BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FROM
NEAR KRWF TO KMSP AND KEAU...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRONGER REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PROG H85 TEMPS OF -17C FOR 18Z
SUNDAY...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT FROM 10 DEGREES TO THE MID
TEENS. SUB-ZERO LOWS THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY MORNING...WITH EVEN
COLDER HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION OCCURS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...BUT ANOTHER BLAST OF FRIGID AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THE VFR CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS IS THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. LITTLE ICE IS INDICATED ALOFT WITH A SATURATED PROFILE
FROM 800MB ON DOWNWARD. THIS IS COUPLED WITH A STRONGLY VEERED LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST
LOCATION IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 IN MN AND ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WITH TIMING FROM 00Z-09Z. THEREFORE -FZDZ WAS INDICATED
IN ALL OF THE TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF. THE WORST AREA
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE.
THE HIGHER END SUSTAINED (20KTS) AND GUSTS (35KTS) ARE MOST LIKELY
AT KAXN AND KRWF.

KMSP...CEILINGS MAY LIFT A LITTLE ABOVE 010 THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS AT OR BELOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
SLOW UP TREND THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A FEW HOURS
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST TIME DURING THE EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU NGT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND NW 10KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WIND NW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH


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