Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 260334 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A widespread cumulus deck formed on the heels of the stratus from
this morning thanks to deep cyclonic flow entrenched across the
region.  Isolated to scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms
will continue drifting across western WI but similarly to
yesterday, those will fade away as the sun goes down this evening.
The same can not be said for western MN where there is a chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms mainly this evening along the
Buffalo Ridge thanks to modest low level warm air advection
coupled with upper level support given the upper level jet

While we will remain entrenched on the west side of the upper level
trough through tomorrow, surface high pressure will build in
overnight through tomorrow.  The center of the high will go from
southern Saskatchewan this evening to the MN/SD border by tomorrow
afternoon, which means our area will remain in northerly flow at the
surface.  Dew points will remain quite low in the 40s and possibly
upper 30s in western MN.  Lows tonight should fall into the 40s
across most of the area and high temps tomorrow will run about 10 to
12 degrees below normal once again, but plentiful sunshine and lower
wind speeds are also expected. With the high moving in, expect
winds around 5 to 10 MPH through the day, becoming calm in far
western MN by tomorrow evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Cooler northwest flow will finally end Monday night as the ridge
of high pressure moves off to the southeast, and southerly flow
develops by Tuesday morning. This will set the stage for warmer
air Tuesday afternoon before the next system begins to affect the
region late Tuesday night.

Very little changes in the extended period with high confidence
that a storm system will bring copious amounts of moisture
northward across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Models are very
consistent on the overall evolution of a storm system over the
Gulf of Alaska today, moving eastward across the Canadian Rockies,
and into the plains of Canada by Wednesday/Thursday. Timing
remains close with some variation from the low level jet
developing Tuesday night. As strong theta-e advection develops at
mid levels of the atmosphere, and the added strength from the
nose of the low level jet, precipitation will develop. Placement
of the highest QPF amounts will be determined by where this low
level jet sets up. Although there remains a marginal risk of
severe weather Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, timing is
not conducive on widespread severe weather, but an isolated severe
wind gust or large hail stone is still likely based on severe
weather parameters. See the latest SPC outlook for more

Wednesday remains questionable on how widespread the precipitation
holds together from earlier morning convection. It could be a
washout day with occasional showers and embedded thunderstorms as
the upper storm system moves slowly across Minnesota. There could
also be the scenario of morning convection exiting the area much
earlier, leaving behind enough instability with strong
thunderstorms once again Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will
reflect these two scenarios as if it is raining all day, highs
will hold in the 60s/70s, if we can get some sunshine, 70s/80s
will be more likely.

Once the midweek system moves off to the east, the fast west to
east flow aloft will keep things interesting by the end of the
week with another storm system affecting the area. This fast west
to east flow aloft will also continue into the early part of the
week of July 3rd. Although it will remain near or below normal for
highs through the upcoming week, models have been trending on an
upper ridge building across the central plains. If this scenario
develops as the upper ridge builds across the center of the
country, much warmer air will build northward, possibly becoming
well above normal after the holiday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Clouds will dissipate
by 07-08Z. A few cu around 6kft may redevelop Monday, greatest
coverage over WI where more isolated-scattered showers may also
pop up.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

Tue...VFR. SHRA/TSRA late, with MVFR cigs. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR/MVFR. Periods of SHRA/TSRA early. Winds SSW 10-15 bcmg W.
Thu...VFR/MVFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.




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