000
FXUS63 KMPX 171924
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
224 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain across far southern Minnesota late tonight into early
  tomorrow morning with the next chance of more widespread rain
  arriving early next week.

- Cooler overnight temperatures may lead to frost/freeze concerns
  through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The back edge of the cloud shield associated with the surface low
that brought us our 1-2" of rain yesterday is starting work into
western Minnesota early this afternoon. Showers have largely come to
an end with a few areas of drizzle still ongoing across western
Wisconsin. This cloud cover combined with strong cold air advection
on the backside of this system has kept temperatures in the 40s and
low 50s area wide today, with breezy northwest winds making it feel
even cooler. Even as this surface low continues to move across the
Great Lakes, these near/slightly below normal temperatures are
expected to continue with a weak cold front moving through early
tomorrow. This front will also be the focus for some showers late
tonight into early Thursday, mainly across the southern third of
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Up to a quarter inch of additional rainfall
is possible before we dry out through the weekend. Temperatures will
be slower to warm with strong CAA and a slow moving upper low
overhead through at least early Saturday. After our recent bout of
temperatures in the 70s and 80s, those who did any early planting
may need to take precautions as overnight lows are expected to fall
near or just below freezing tomorrow night through Sunday morning.

By Sunday, temperatures look to return to the upper 50s and low 60s
with this slight warming trend continuing through the end of the
period. After a period of dry weather, rain chances increase Monday
and Tuesday. Currently, QPF amounts are on the lower end with only a
few tenths to a quarter inch expected. Once this system moves
out, ridging will build in and we will see temperatures back in
the mid to upper 60s through much of next week with more
potential rain chances on the horizon.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR/VFR will continue through
this evening as a surface low over the Great Lakes continues to
pull away to the east. Winds have also become west/northwesterly
and are still on the breezy side. A shift to straight westerly
with gusts dropping off will occur after 00z. There is a small
chance for another round of showers early Thursday morning for
our southernmost terminals, but confidence wasn`t high enough
for KMSP and KEAU to add anything but a PROB30 for now. Winds
will pick up again by the end of the period.

KMSP...As mentioned above, expecting a improvement to VFR by
this evening. PROB30 for some showers has been included for
early tomorrow morning, but VFR conditions are expected to
prevail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15-25G30-40 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye