Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The main forecast concern is the extent of areal coverage this
evening as most of the shower/thunderstorm activity in central
Minnesota was diurnally driven. However, a more concentrated area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms that was associated with an
upper level disturbance in northern North Dakota, may allow for
the activity to continue through the evening in portions of west
central southwest/south central Minnesota /although weaker than
currently indicated on radar/. Still believe that even this
activity will decrease some due to the typical loss of daytime
heating. Will leave a low chance in this area, with most areas in
central/southern Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin
having the precipitation ending by 9 pm to midnight.

Tomorrow weather will have more cloud cover and a continued
chance of isolated/scattered showers, especially closer to the
upper low which will slowly move from northern Minnesota, into
northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will reflect the denser cloud
cover with highs only rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Normal high temperatures for late May are in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Coverage of the shower activity will begin to decrease Monday
night, and especially Tuesday as the area of low pressure and
instability moves further east of the region. Temperatures on
Tuesday could be similar to Monday as the core of the coldest
air moves overhead.

As with previous forecast discussions, high pressure will build
across the area Tuesday night, and into Wednesday. Once this high
pressure system moves off to the southeast, winds will shift to
the south. This will set the stage for warmer conditions by the
end of the week.

Models have continued to support a warm front near the
Iowa/Minnesota border Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. Elevated
instability and a low level jet associated with this front, will
likely develop an area of showers and thunderstorms, especially in
far southern Minnesota. This is also where the higher
precipitation chances remain.

The upper level pattern remains conducive for an upper level ridge
to slowly move eastward across the northern plains by the end of
the week. There remains some model differences /past model runs/
in the placement and strength of this upper level ridge by this
weekend. Therefore confidence in the forecast past Friday is low,
especially considering the spread in model solutions in terms of
frontal position over the weekend. The best forecast is continue
with low chances of precipitation and hold onto temperatures near
normal with highs in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A cumulus field has developed across the TAF sites area. An
approaching upper level wave will cause scattered showers and
possibly even some weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, northwesterly winds will continue to be breezy this
afternoon with gusts near 25 kts before becoming lighter
overnight. MVFR conditions possible by late Monday morning as low
clouds build-in across the TAF area.

KMSP...Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon/early evening prior to 02Z. MVFR conditions are possible
by late Monday morning due to low ceiling heights. In addition,
another round of showers is anticipated by late Monday morning
through Monday afternoon.

Mon Night...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.




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