Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 152321
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
521 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Upper low continues to drift across southern Canada north of
Minnesota with near zonal flow across the northern plains. A series
of shortwaves are crossing the region bringing some clouds to the
area. Temps are currently in the mid 70s to upper 80s. Short range
models are loosely suggesting some weak convection developing this
evening ahead of an upper wave. The cap has practically eroded, but
CAPE is very weak (under 300 J/KG). Any convection that develops
will again be high based and low topped. Precip will evaporate
before reaching the ground...so will not be adding pops...except
isolated pops over the Black Hills where rain has better chance of
reaching the ground.

Zonal flow will continue through tomorrow. Isolated storms could
develop during the afternoon hours especially over the Black
Hills. Highs will again be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. A
stronger shortwave is progged to cross Montana/northern Wyoming
late Friday night into Saturday along with a cold front. This will
bring the best chance of precipitation over the next week. Right
now the best chances of showers/isolated storms will be over
northeast Wyoming...the northern Black Hills...and northwest South
Dakota. Cooler temps behind the front are expected for the weekend
with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Strong upper ridging
will build back into the region early next week with generally dry
weather and temps reaching into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 520 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this evening over the Black Hills.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...MLS



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