Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 161714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH IS DRAPED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BLANKET MUCH OF THE REGION...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO STICK
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES. MAY BE
SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...BRINGING IN A BIT OF MOISTURE. AN AREA OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
DURING THE DAY. ADDED SOME VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7 C/KM...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
LIMITED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE
EASTERN CWA TO THE MID 30S FARTHER WEST...WITH LOWS AROUND 10 TO 20
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WITH LACK OF FORCING/MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
AREAS LACKING SNOW COVER. ECMWF/GFS/GEFS TRENDING TOWARDS BUILDING
RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH LONG WAVE TROF THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT MOST OF WESTERN SD... INCLUDING KRAP... TO STAY
SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
WHILE NORTHEASTERN WY WILL SEE SOME CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE
MOVING BACK IN THIS EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...MCKEMY





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