Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 251131
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
631 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KNOT
JET AT 300MB AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHERE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION AT 09Z. ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE WAS
RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF COOLING BY VERTICAL MOTION AND EVAPORATION SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO COOL THIS LAYER AND GET THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY BETWEEN 400 AM AND 700 AM OVER
MOST AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD GET 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
WET SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON GUSTY WEST WINDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME MELTING TO OCCUR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED IN VILAS COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND PART OF
THURSDAY. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY SO
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
DUE TO LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SURFACE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES REMAIN
SINCE IT MAY STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
AT ONSET...BUT PROBABLY SWITCH TO SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF. A SWITCH BACK TO RAIN SEEMS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY IF TIMING IS OFF BY MUCH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS TO
LIGHT AIRCRAFT IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF D25/LNL/ARV AND EGV WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ030-
031-035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.