Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 180427 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS EVENING.

SFC OBS NOW CONFIRMING TREND NOTED EARLIER ON STLT AND RADAR
IMAGERY...THAT SNOW BANDS WERE RE-ORIENTING A LITTLE MORE NW/SE.
THIS WILL ALLOW MORE SIG SNOWS TO WORK INTO VILAS COUNTY. CO-
WORKER JUST DUG OUT A REPORT OF 4 INCHES FM NW CORNER OF THE
COUNTY...SO THE WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK. SFC OBS INDICATE WINDS
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH THIS
CERTINALY WON/T BE AN EXCEPTIONALLY WINDY STORM.

ELSEWHERE...THE ISSUE WL BE CLDS AND TEMPS. CLDS WL PROBABLY TEND
TO DECR SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SKIES WL AT LEAST BE PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACRS THE AREA. WL KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FCST...AND CURRENT
RADAR EVEN INDICATES A LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES NOW ALONG THE
LAKESHORE IN DOOR COUNTY.

AFTER VERY COLD TEMPS DURING THE DAY...READINGS NOT FALLING MUCH
THIS EVENING. THAT/S PRETTY TYPICAL OF SITNS SUCH AS THIS WHERE
THERE ARE SOME CLDS AND WINDS ARE STAYING UP...AND TEMP CHANGES
ARE DOMINATED BY ADVECTION. GOING MINS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW. WL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THOSE AFTER SEEING THE 9 PM OBS.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT IN ABOUT HALF HOUR OR SO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

REPORTS FROM WESTERN GOGEBIC INDICATED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW THERE
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THE FLOW HAD
TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY FOR MORE THAN JUST A BRIEF VISIT.
WINDS SHOULD VEER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES...BRINGING THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO VILAS COUNTY. BASED ON EXAMINATION OF THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...THIS WAS OCCURRING AS OF 20Z. CYCLONIC
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR AND WIND
DIRECTION BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE SHOULD STILL ALLOW ENOUGH SNOW
TO FALL IN NORTHWEST VILAS TO JUSTIFY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING...SO HAVE LEFT IT IN PLACE. AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH
AND BACKING UPPER FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A RIDGE SHOULD BRING
THE LAKE EFFECT TO AN END DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

COLD ADVECTION...PLUS THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO EVEN
REACH DOUBLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY...MAKES
THE COLDER GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM LIKE THE BETTER ROUTE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EVEN WITH WIND AND CLOUDS. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT LOOK LIKE
THEY COULD BE IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE. MOS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY WERE PRETTY CLOSE SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE COLD AND OVERALL DRY REGIME WILL HANG ON THIS WEEK. THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ENSURES LITTLE CHANGE WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHING
FAR WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY....PASSING OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT
TIMING SUGGESTS FALLING DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE
TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS TUESDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LATER
EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA.

THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE FAR NORTH BUT WINDS
APPEAR TO BE TOO WESTERLY AT THIS TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION FOR VILAS COUNTY.

BUT FINALLY A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY
PROGS LIFT A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...THEN PHASE THIS SYSTEM WITH A COLDER NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT. THESE PHASED SYSTEMS TEND TO LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVELS BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING TO BRING RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AT LEAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EACH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

CLDS HAVE DECREASED ACRS THE AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF
CLDS TO MV ACRS THE RGN OVERNIGHT IN COLD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES AS WELL. THE ONLY SIG WX WL BE IN THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SNOWBELT...N OF THE TAF SITES. CLDS WL INCR A BIT AGAIN
TOMORROW...THOUGH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







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