Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 182023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
323 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

The latest Rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure mainly in charge across the western Great Lakes early this
afternoon.  There is a weak cold front that is stalled out over
northern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin, where areas of cu/strato-
cu are focused along.  Clouds are a little more widespread over
northern Minnesota though.  Weather is pretty quiet upstream as
well, with most convection confined to the mid Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Forecast concerns mainly revolve around clouds and temps
through Tuesday.

Tonight...Models indicate that the weak cold front will drift
southward from north-central WI to the northern Fox Valley tonight.
This front will bring scattered, perhaps broken, conditions at
times.  A few models spit out light precip along it, but that looks
a little too ambitious.  With light winds, temps should fall into
the upper 40s north and into the low 60s south.

Tuesday...Scattered morning clouds may linger along the front during
the morning before the front retreats northeast.  Then a surface
warm front will move into southwest WI during the afternoon, with
precip chances residing along and to the south of it.  Otherwise,
should see a quiet and slightly warmer day with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Large upper ridge centered over the southern Plains will control
the weather over much of the country through the end of the week.
Wisconsin is close enough to the westerlies, though to have some
opportunities for precipitation. An upper trough and warm front at
the surface should bring showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
night through Wednesday.

The warm front should get far enough north to allow hot and humid
air to flow north into the area but if the front holds up across
the north they may get spared the worst heat. Friday could also be
very hot, or perhaps not, depending on how fast a cold front arrives.
The ECMWF is much faster than the GFS and it would keep highs in the
80s along with a chance of rain. The GFS would be very hot, with record
highs possible. If the GFS is correct we will likely issue a heat advisory
for central and east central Wisconsin for Thursday and Friday but
there is still too much uncertainty yet.

Whenever the cold front does go by it should be followed by dry
and pleasant weather for the first part of next week.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Mainly quiet weather thanks to a weak high pressure system.  A
decaying front will bring few to scattered clouds over north-central
and northeast WI this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Patchy fog
is also possible late tonight over north-central WI, but probability
of impact is too low to include in the RHI taf.



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