Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 262030
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MG


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