Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 100947
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
347 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 346 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Will be expanding the warning area back to the west another tier
of counties, and hold onto the advisory in central Wisconsin
through 00Z. Coding is below. Discussion for this portion of the
forecast will follow a little later.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 346 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Main story for this period will be the bitterly cold weather at
the beginning of the period, then a moderation in temperatures
later in the weekend into early next week.

For Wednesday night, a jet streak moving east of the area will
bring an end to any light snow across eastern Wisconsin as arctic
cold front moves away from the area. Another jet streak is
expected to move across the upper Midwest on Thursday. The area
will be in the left exit region of 140 knot jet (WRF). There is
some concern about low level moisture, as the models have trended
to dry out the 850mb layer. Think there is enough forcing to get
some minor accumulations south of highway 29.

For Thursday night, another round of bitter wind chill readings
expected. A wind chill advisory may be needed for locations north
and west of the Fox Valley for wind chill readings of 20 below to
30 below zero. Winds should remain up through most of the night
into Friday morning, but those typical cold spots could go calm.
Did lower minimum temperatures Thursday night and highs on Friday.
Low temperatures may need to be lowered Friday night with fresh
snow cover and light winds. A gradual moderation in temperatures
is expected Saturday with readings at or above normal Sunday into
early next week.

It appears there will be a more vigorous system for the first half
of next week. The latest ECMWF has trended slower with the main
system. Will need to watch this feature.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 959 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

Aside from a break in the significant pcpn over north central WI,
persistent WAA/Isentropic Lift will keep steady snow going across
the region overnight. A strong upper level trof and low pressure
system will arrive on Tuesday, and generate additional significant
pcpn into the early to mid afternoon. Though pcpn type should
remain snow over north central and far northeast WI, enough warm
air is expected to arrive to result in a wintry mix as far north
as Wausau, Keshena and Marinette by midday Tuesday. Snow should
change to rain over the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas Tuesday
morning. Flight conditions will be mostly IFR tonight, but should
deteriorate to LIFR Tuesday morning. A gradual improvement is
expected late in the day, in the wake of an arctic cold front.
VFR conditions should return Tuesday evening.

LLWS will diminish early in the TAF period. Strong westerly
surface winds will develop mid to late Tuesday afternoon, and
continue into the evening. Gusts to 25 to 35 knots, strongest
in the Fox Valley and Lakeshore areas.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ022-037>040-
045-048>050.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ010>013-
018>021-030-031-073-074.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ005-
035-036.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch



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