Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 021110
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
510 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

FIRST ISSUE TODAY.  CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...ISSUED
A SPS FOR SLIPPERY ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE PRIOR TO THE
WINTER STORM WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOWER VISIBILITIES
WERE NOTED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG NOTED ON A FEW OF THE WEB CAMS IN THE OSHKOSH AREA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS CONTINUES WITH THE WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE AREA. FOR THE BIG PICTURE...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW STILL LOOKS
ON TARGET FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FOX CITIES LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BUT PLENTY OF LOOSE ENDS WITH THIS STORM...MAINLY POTENTIALLY LESS
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
LAKE SHORE...BUT GREATER CHANCE FOR A MIX OF PCPN WITH A CONCRETE
TYPE OF SNOW DURING THE RUSH HOUR TIME FRAME. MID LEVEL DRYING MAY
DIMINISH THE ACCUMULATION LATER TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OR TURN TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW.
WITH THE WAA REGION OF THE PCPN SLIDING NORTHWARD...AND THE SYSTEM
DEFORMATION AREA ARRIVING LATER ON...COULD GET A BREAK IN THE
STORM EVENT OVERNIGHT.

THIS DEFORMATION AREA MAY STILL BE PASSING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NOON HOUR WEDNESDAY. REGION OF SNOW GROWTH REGION
INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING SO THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNING OR AN ADVISORY. BUT
THE CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL BREAK OF THE DRY SLOT LATER THIS
EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE WARNINGS LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

BUT OVERALL NO CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WITH THE SYSTEM WORKING
INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT DRIFTING AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE HELD IN CHECK OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE
TO THE MIX POTENTIAL AND RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MODELS CONT TO SHOW A SPLIT/AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW WITH THE DOMINANT
FEATURES BEING A WEST COAST UPR RDG AND A RETROGRADING UPR TROF
FROM THE E-CNTRL CONUS TOWARD CNTRL NOAM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINLY KEEP A NW FLOW INTO WI WITH SEVERAL CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEMS SWINGING THRU THE AREA. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR
TO BE VERY STRONG...THUS DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SERIOUS
ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS ARE FCST TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY NORMAL
THRU THE EXTENDED FCST.

INITIALLY...LAKE EFFECT SET-UP IS FAVORABLE FOR N-CNTRL WI EARLY
WED EVENING WITH NW WINDS...8H TEMPS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
AROUND -16C...DELTA-T VALUES IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS AND A LACK OF
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THE PROBLEM FOR HIGHER POPS/BETTER SNOW
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WL BE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SFC RDG WED
NGT WHICH WOULD BACK THE WINDS AND ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF ANY LAKE
EFFECT. THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED HI CHC POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT
REGION OF VILAS CNTY WED EVENING AND TAPERED POPS DOWN FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS. PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED AT MOST. THE
REST OF NE WI SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AS THE WEAK SFC RDG APPROACHES. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NORTH...5 TO 10 CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI AND 10
TO 15 ABOVE NEAR LAKE MI.

A VERY WEAK CLIPPER...ACCOMPANIED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF...
WL APPROACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON THU. THIS LITTLE SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED...THUS EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS TO THICKEN
DURING THE DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW REACHING CNTRL WI
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED FCST WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGS NORTH...LWR TO MID
20S SOUTH.

ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT DOES FALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT ERN
WI THU EVENING AND MAY BE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THAT. A
RDG OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY THU NGT AND
ANTICIPATE SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT...SO TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH...AROUND 10 ABOVE CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI AND LWR TO MID
TEENS NEAR LAKE MI. THE NEXT VERY WEAK CLIPPER/SHORTWAVE TROF
COMBINATION IS FCST TO PUSH INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY ON FRI...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
REACHING CNTRL WI LATER IN THE DAY. A SW WIND AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
SHOULD BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH
READINGS IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THIS CLIPPER SWINGS THRU NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES FRI NGT
WITH A TRAILING CDFNT SAGGING INTO CNTRL SECTIONS OF WI. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SMALLER CHCOF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE MINOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
CDFNT TO STALL OVER CNTRL WI AND ACTUALLY LIFT A BIT NORTH AS A
WRMFNT ON SAT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM SITUATED
WELL TO OUR NW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHCS ALONG/NORTH OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS ON SAT WL RANGE FROM
THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...UPR 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS THIRD
CLIPPER WITH THE GEM FASTER AND WEAKEST...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
WITH THE INTENSITY. SAT NGT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE WRMFNT TO THE NORTH...THE CLIPPER LOCATED OVER THE
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SITUATED
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN ISEN LIFT ACROSS WI WL BRING
BOTH MILDER TEMPS (UPR 20S TO LWR 30S) AND A CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ON
SUNDAY...ALTHO QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE
IS CUT-OFF BY A SRN STREAM STORM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE BEST
CHC FOR SEEING A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE SUNDAY NGT
INTO MON AS THE CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH AND A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DUE TO A LACK OF GULF
MOISTURE...ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS CLIPPER SHOULD BE LIGHT. AS THE
UPR TROF APPROACHES...COOLER AIR ALOFT WL SEND MAX TEMPS ON MON
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS
WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS MAY TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW. CONDITIONS COULD BE AT OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS. 6 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ010>013-018>022-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH


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