Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 190237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
937 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Low temperatures at some of the typical cool spots over north-
central Wisconsin have already fallen past forecast mins.
Adjusted mins down to account for this, but patchy mid-clouds
advancing into north-central Wisconsin will probably cause
temperatures to bounce around a little later in the night. The
lower temperatures also make fog a little more likely, so added
patchy fog to the forecast for the north.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Skies cleared as a cold front to the southeast continued to move
away from the forecast area. Temperatures were quite a bit cooler
than they were on Monday, but highs were still in the 60s (around
10 degrees warmer than normal). Dew points were in the 40s.

As the surface pressure gradient weakens tonight winds will become
light and, with little or no cloud-cover, temperatures should
fall quickly. Expect lows to be mostly in the 40s.

Models showed more cold advection and increasing clouds for
Wednesday as a weak cold front, that was just moving into
northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, pushes through the state.
Highs should still range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, which is
well above normal.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Northwest flow aloft will allow a cooler air mass to pour into
the region for the rest of the work week. Temperatures will fall
to near or slightly normal levels by Friday and may even be cold
enough for flurries toward the Great Lakes Region.

The cool air mass is expected to linger into the first half of
the weekend before upper heights begin to rise again Sunday and
return flow in the boundary layer allow warmer air to return. Due
to varying strength of the upper ridge over the mid section of the
country early next week, model timing and solutions show up with
the GFS remaining with a dry mild forecast through mid week next
week, versus the wetter ecmwf developing an upper low system just
to the west.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Fairly tranquil weather expected for the next 24 hours. The main
aviation concern is the potential for patchy fog overnight. It`s
most likely across the north, and will continue to carry it in
the RHI TAF. But it could affect other areas as well. Will take a
look at dew point depressions before finalizing the 06Z TAFs.



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