Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290847
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AT 2 AM...THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE VEIL
OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRESSURE RISES OVER MINNESOTA AND COMBINED WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORTS THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A FAST MOVING BUT
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING IDAHO WITH FALLING PRESSURES
OVER MONTANA AND AWIPS DISTANCE TIME FEATURES SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD WITH TIMING
OF CLEARING THE MOST NOTABLE ISSUE WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 2 TO 3
HOURS DEPENDING ON MICRO SCALE PROCESSES INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON DEPTH OF CLOUD LAYERS BEFORE DISSIPATES.

TODAY..CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ALL THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY MORNING WITH HIGHS
TODAY UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER BY SUNRISE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. PATCHY FROST
WITH LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLE AND ADDED IN THE SOUTH WHERE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES STILL APPLY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REASSES THE FROST RISK.
MINS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 30S
SOUTH SECTIONS.     NICHOLS


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIPPER LIKE WAVE STILL ON TRACK TO SKIRT DOWN
ACRS THE CWA ON THU TO LEE OF AMPLIFYING WESTERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. THE 00Z RUN NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE SATURATION ON
THE SOUNDINGS AND BREAK OUT MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT AM
LEARY OF THEIR BIAS OF OVERDOING THIS PARAMETER. FEEL WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM AND A LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE SOURCE...THAT
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...SPRINKLES OR EVEN VIRGA WILL BE THE
RESULT WITH MANY AREAS HAVING A HARD TIME MEASURING. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXIT OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA BY MID THU AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS 00Z MODEL GO ROUND IS THE MUCH MORE BULLISH SURGE OF
INCOMING COLD CANADIAN AIR/FRONT UNDER SHARPLY PHASING COLD CORE L/W
TROF ACRS THE MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW TO MID LAYER TO STRONGLY COLD AIR
ADVECT THU NIGHT...WITH H85 MB TEMPS NOW PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY
FROM -6C TO -8C ACRS THE CWA BY 12Z FRI. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ITSELF WOULD SHUTTLE TEMPS DOWN IN THE
LOW 30S TO EVEN UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH CWA BY FRI MORNING...AND IN
THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. EXTENT OF TIGHTENING LLVL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUCH STOUT CAA MAY DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
WRING OUT SOME RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS IN LLVL VERY
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH
CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY BUT TREND DOWN
FRI AM LOWS AND RAISE/STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. ROUNDS OF CAA CLOUDS
TO LAST FROM THE NIGHT INTO FRI. BESIDES WINDY CONDITIONS MAYBE
NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY FROM ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...EXTENT OF
COLD AIRMASS/1035+ MB HIGH BARGING ITS WAY ACRS THE WESTERN GRT
LKS MAY NOT WARM UP PAST THE LOWER 40S PORTIONS OF THE DVN
CWA...MOST AREAS HELD IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. RIDGE OVERHEAD FOR A
SFC WIND DECOUPLE...AND CLEAR SKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING WIDESPREAD DOWN IN THE 20S AND A HARD FREEZE.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PASSING OMEGA RIDGE COMPLEX FOR A GENERALLY
FAIR WX WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND A
RETURN TO THE 50S. SPOTTY ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS NOW DELAYED
ACRS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS
ROCKIES LEE SIDE L/W TROF ORGANIZES.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HANDLING/PHASING ISSUES WILL EVENTUALLY
DETERMINE HOW EJECTING CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACTING AS MAIN PRECIP SWATH FOCUS...LAYS
OUT ACRS THE MID CONUS THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z RUN GFS SUGGESTS A
SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THOUGH THIS PAST MONDAY WHERE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MISSES THE CWA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND WE ARE JUST THE RECIPIENT OF MILD AIR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S OR EVEN 60S. THE EURO HAS THE MAIN FRONTALLY FORCED
PRECIP BAND MOVING RIGHT ACRS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR NOW FOR MON INTO TUE...BUT THE PHASING
WILL BE THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME INDICATOR AND FEEL NON OF THE MODELS
HAVE A HANDLE ON THAT YET AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW VFR CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-4K AGL OF BKN-OVC COVERAGE AT
MLI-CID-DBQ TERMINALS INTO MID MORNING HOURS AND FEW-BKN COVERAGE
AT BRL TERMINAL. SKIES TO CLEAR OR BECOME FAIR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN
29/12Z AND 29/18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 12 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT
BY SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS








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