Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 010901 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THE GOES EAST 11-3.9 IR
DIFFERENCE PRODUCT WAS HIGHLIGHTING A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE DVN CWA OR SOUTH OF A IOWA
CITY IOWA-TO-FREEPORT ILLINOIS LINE. THE CLOUDS WERE LOCATED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z/6.1 DVN
SOUNDING. CEILING HEIGHTS VARIED BETWEEN 3-4.5 KFT AGL. TEMPS WERE
COLDEST...IN THE 40S...WHERE IT WAS CLEAR BUT WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S UNDER THE STRATUS. SFC OBS ALSO SHOWED LIGHT ENE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TODAY...QUIET AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS SHOULD
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 60S AND A FEW
POCKETS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA NEAR 70 F. THE ONLY
OTHER DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT ENE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH. AREAS THAT HAVE
STRATUS THIS MORNING...WHICH IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

TONIGHT...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL FALL QUITE A BIT
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DROPPING TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NE SECTION OF
THE DVN CWA...MID 40S TO UPPER 40S IN THE CENTRAL PORTION...AND
LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO THREAT
FOR RAIN AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS STAYS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE FOCUS EARLY ON AS A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING GREAT
LAKES RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING AROUND THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TOPPING A SOUTHERN U.S. INTERACT
WITH GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID
SOUTH...TOPPED BY A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES UNTIL THE FEATURE BREAKS
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW OF
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED TO WELL WEST
OF THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE AS DAYTIME MIXING
TAPS INTO WARMING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB. HIGHS WERE KEPT NEAR A
GUIDANCE BLEND OF LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY AND THEN UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY. BASED ON MODELS TRYING TO INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TOO FAST IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH...HAVE KEPT MINS ON
THE COOLER SIDE...FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER AND MID
50S ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN FOLLOW NEARLY EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY AS MODELS
HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE AREA ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL RIDGE
RUNNING SHORTWAVES...ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF CRITICAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S CHANCES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE FAR WEST AND NW FOR POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT DISSIPATING
COMPLEXES WANDERING IN FROM A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FURTHER
WEST. MODELS MAINTAIN THE BEST SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH FRIDAY...AND HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE
CENTERED ON THESE PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR WHAT MAY BE MORE LIKELY SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS THEN
FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE LATEST MODELS HAVE THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW. AFTER PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S THU...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND RAIN FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE RETURN TO LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS...HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHS...MAINLY IN THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL
AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MVFR CIGS OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS THREAT HAS BROUGHT
MANY HOURS OF MVFR CIGS TO BRL...AND COULD AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MONDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
CEDAR RAPIDS AND DUBUQUE...WHILE MLI COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CIGS OVERNIGHT. IN ANY CASE...BY MID MORNING MONDAY...ALL SITES
WILL RETURN TO CONSISTENTLY VFR. ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...ERVIN



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