Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 061156
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
556 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING PASSING RIDGE AXIS SINKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY...ALLOWING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACRS IA/MO. SFC
TROF OR EVEN A TYPE OF WARM FRONT WAS EVIDENT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND UP
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRESSURE FALLS INCREASING OVER MUCH
OF THE MO RVR VALLEY. SFC TEMPS WHICH PLUMMETED EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT/ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA/ ARE SHOWING
RISING TRENDS FROM WEST-TO-EAST ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING DECK OF
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/WAA CLOUDS. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WAS INDICATING A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE ROLLING EASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN IA ATTM...WITH A SECONDARY VORT LOBE NOTED FURTHER
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE NEXT MAIN VORT MAX IN LINE WAS
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACRS NORTHERN B.C. CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TODAY...BOTH THE CURRENT PASSING VORT MAX AND THE DAKOTA LOBE WILL
BE SWEEPING THROUGH A DRY AIR MASS TODAY AND DO LITTLE BUT PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. AFTER THE
CURRENT INCOMING WAA DECK PASSES EAST ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING...
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL ANOTHER WING
OF MID CLOUDS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO DRAW UPON PLAINS THERMAL POOL AND MAKE FOR LATE AFTERNOON
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...TO THE UPPER
30S OR AROUND 40 SOUTH OF I80. TOOK A BLEND OF THE MILDER ECMWF AND
MAV MOS TEMP GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF MOS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AT
ALL SITES.

TONIGHT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG VORT MAX ACRS B.C. WILL CLIPPER
IT/S WAY DOWN ACRS SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA BY SAT MORNING.
AGAIN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...DESPITE IT/S STRENGTH SEE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP GETTING KICKED UP IN THE LOCAL FCST AREA WITH BETTER
CHC TO THE NORTH ACRS MN INTO WI. MORE ROUNDS OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA INTO SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY AFTER A POST-SUNSET DROP
OFF...WITH EVEN SOME STEADY TO SLOW RISE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ONGOING WAA ON THE INCOMING MN/WI CLIPPER/S WARM DRAW.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAJOR WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SPRING WEATHER MAIN TOPIC.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGE IS MELTING OF SNOW
PACK WITH MARCH SUNSHINE. AREA HIGHS MOST DAYS MAY BE 3 OR DEGREES TOO
LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER...ESPECIALLY ONCE SNOW PACK MELTS
WHICH SHOULD BE SUNDAY MOST AREAS AND SOME NORTH LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.

OVERVIEW...MINOR ISSUES WITH A 70/30 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO GFS PREFERRED
MAINLY DUE TO GFS TOO COOL AND MOIST IN BL. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR HIGHS DAYS 2-7.

SATURDAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH UPPER 30S NORTH TO POSSIBLY SOME
PLACES IN THE SOUTH THE MIDDLE 40S. LOWS WITH BL DECOUPLING SUPPORTS
MINS BELOW GUIDANCE WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SUNDAY...WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH MAY BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES BUT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
IS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. SOUTH SECTIONS TO SEE
MORE SUNSHINE SUGGESTING DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT OF 15 PLUS DEGREES
ALLOWING FOR UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH SECTIONS. SUNDAY
NIGHT MINS WITH BL DECOUPLING SUGGEST MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
TO LOWER 20S SOUTH SECTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE WITH FAIR SKIES. WARMEST
DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS SUGGEST WITH SNOW ALL MELTED BY THEN TO SEE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES SOUTH SECTIONS...WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE LONG
COLD WINTER. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY TO SHIFT WINDS TO
THE EAST AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN WITH MOSTLY 50S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. JUST PASSING
ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON...WINDS TO THEN VEER
MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASE AND FLUCTUATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. IF SFC WINDS DROP BELOW
8 KTS LATE TONIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS PUSHING 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL
THERE MAY BE NEAR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS EARLY SAT
MORNING. WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS MN AND WI LATE
TONIGHT...A LOW CHC FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT NORTH OF
THE DBQ AIRPORT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12






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