Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 222019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
319 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

High pressure over both the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
brought nice weather to E Iowa/NW Illinois/NE Missouri today.
Temperatures were seasonal in the upper 70s to lower 80s and the
humidity was comfortable. Dry conditions will continue through
this evening and into Tuesday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

This Evening and Tonight: Southerly winds will decrease to under
10 mph as skies remain mostly clear. Mentioned patchy fog for some
of the river valleys across the N/NE CWA but thinking most areas
will have little to no fog due to light winds maintaining near sfc
mixing. Lows are forecast to be warmer than last night...near 60 F
on avg.

Tuesday: Area of sfc low pressure and compact vorticity max aloft
will quickly traverse through the Central Plains into northern
Iowa. Locally, we will notice higher humidity and breezy south
winds gusting over 20 mph. As for rain chances, it should be
another dry day. Zones of synoptic-scale ascent avoid the forecast
area and instability is forecast to be low. The only mention of
rain or storms (at 20%) is across the far SW during the late
afternoon. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Forecast focus on active pattern through the extended.

Tuesday night:  A strong upper level trough will be tracking across
the northern Rockies and upper Midwest. The dvn cwa will be on the
nose of a 50 knot low level jet. This will enhance low level speed
convergence/forcing and trigger a rather large mcs that the models
push into the cwa from the west, especially later in the evening and
overnight. PWAT`s increase to over 2 inches allowing for the
potential for torrential rainfall. Bulk shear also becomes moderate
to strong overnight but the instability decreases. However, can`t
rule out isolated damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms, and
SPC has a marginal risk.

Wednesday through Thursday: The low level jet weakens and veers
westerly which should diminish the mcs in the morning on Wednesday
while shifting eastward. Later in the day a cold front will be
dropping into the area with re-development of thunderstorms, mainly
along and south of Interstate 80. These storms may linger into
Wednesday night and possibly into early Thursday. Once again, SPC
has a marginal risk for mainly a wind threat. Torrential rain will
also be a threat. Later Thursday dry weather returns.

Friday through next Monday: Active pattern as strong upper level
trough pushes into the Rockies and sets up a southwest flow aloft in
the central United States. Warm and humid conditions can be expected
during this time frame, along with periodic rounds of showers and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Did not
mention fog in TAFs due to low confidence on occurrence and
coverage. Also, steady south winds should result in less
favorable conditions for fog formation compared to early this
morning. Uttech


.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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