Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 021353
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
753 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

AREA RADARS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF REFLECTIVITY IN THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING OVERSPREADING NE MO INTO SOUTHERN IA AND FAR W
CENTRAL IL. IN LOCAL FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO
BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET...WHILE HEAVY SNOW AND
EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL IA. 13Z
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH SOME DYNAMIC
COOLING AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINES INTACT FOR NOW AS PRECIPITATION
IS STILL MOVING IN WITH A VERY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEETING WINTER STORM HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA LOOKS
LOW...WILL STILL SEE A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. ALSO...EAST WINDS COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...OVERALL RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER SW KS
PRECEDED BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO.
WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER WAS ON ITS NORTHERN FLANK ACROSS
NORTHERN KS AND MUCH OF NEBRASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ELEVATED
LIFT AND RESULTING RADAR RETURNS HAVE YET TO RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF STRONG
FORCING AND A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME SEEN ON KDVN 00Z
SOUNDING FROM AROUND 925 MB TO 700 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

VERY CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST DUE TO PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND WHAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVENT
FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK
THE SURFACE LOW N-NE THROUGH EASTERN IA WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST COMPLEX CONDITIONS
WILL BE THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST FORCING...PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KS AND MO...LIFTS THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A DRY
SLOT AND BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE FAR NORTH TODAY WITH THIS INCOMING
WAVE...BUT MAINLY RAIN OVER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
MENTION OF SLEET ADDED DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING AND DRY LAYER
THAT WILL BE QUICKLY OVERCOME. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH MAY END UP BEING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE UNDER THE DRY SLOT AND LULL IN
WINDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO COMPLEXITY.

AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM
WARNING AREAS GOING FOR NOW...BUT THE ONSET WILL MORE LIKELY BE
LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL ADJUST WORDING IN THE PRODUCT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HEADLINE AREAS IS MARGINAL
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DRIVES THE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY RAIN. IN THE GOING
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED SNOW TOTALS TO ROUGHLY A ONE TO THREE INCH
RANGE...WITH A SMALL AREA OF NEAR 5 INCHES CONFINED TO NORTHERN
BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINTER HEADLINES.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT...COLD ADVECTION AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD SEND A WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST BY MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY END UP BEING THE PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA AND NW
IL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD..  THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WEAKENING AND QUICKLY SWEEPING OUT OF THE AREA.  LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
AFTER THIS...A SOMEWHAT MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
CHANCE OF A SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

WITH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WITH A
NEARLY STACKED SYNOPTIC STORM...FORCING IN THE REMAINING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED.   THIS MEANS THAT OVERALL
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.  THE
OVERALL SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE DECENTLY STRONG AND WILL LEAD TO
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.  ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO FAR NW ZONES OF THE CWA...EXPECT
LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOME OF THE COOLEST...BUT NOT AS COOL
AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WITH THE LACK OF LARGE SNOWPACK FROM HIGHWAY 30 SOUTH...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH A LACK OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RATHER NICE. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 40S AGAIN.  AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FEATURES...HOWEVER
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.  LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA ALMOST A WEEK APART FROM
THE CURRENT ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC AND
FAST CHANGING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WHILE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FOG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT UNDER THE PASSING LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW CHANGING
TO RAIN IN DBQ...WITH A MIX EARLY AT OTHER SITES CHANGING TO RAIN
BY MID MORNING. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES...HAVE CONFINED MENTION TO THE BRL SITE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR BY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY AT BRL AND MLI OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT ROTATES THROUGH. THIS MAY ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR JO DAVIESS.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS


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