Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 300426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY CHANGEABLE DAY.  WARM ADVECTIONS RAINS EARLIER
BROADS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND A TENTH OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
BRIEFLY FROZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE MELTING...AND EVAPORATING.
THIS COLD SURFACE AIR IS STILL LINGING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS OF
2 PM. SUNSHINE...AND DEEPLY MIXED HEATING PREFRONTAL HAS ALLOWED FOR
A WEDGE OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN OUR WESTERN 1/2 SO FAR...WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TO ACHIEVE THIS FROM
THE EARLY DAY COLD. LOOKING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...COLD ADVECTION IS
ALREADY RETURNING THE STATE BACK TO THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THIS IS
OCCURING IN A WINDY WELL MIXED AIRMASS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THIS WITH SPS PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING A ENHANCED FIRE
SPREADING DANGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AND INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP AROUND
SUNSET. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SUBSIDENCE...AND THROUGH THE CONTINUED MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE GOING SOUTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE...IN A REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FLATTENED RIDGE WILL COUNTER ACT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING MOST SITES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD....BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE SPENT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY APPEARS SPECTACULAR BY SENSIBLE STANDARDS. SUNSHINE...WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S FROM
EAST TO WEST ARE EXPECTED. OTEHR THAN A POTENTIALLY INCREASED GRASS
FIRE DANGER...TOMORROW WILL BE EASILY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN A
LONG WHILE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z
GFS WITH RESPECT TO IT/S HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS OF THE PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
MOISTURE DRAW TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA MON
EVENING STILL SEEMS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AND BESIDES A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST INTO TUE MORNING. THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO BE ENGULFED
IN THE SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...UNTIL
FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO OCCUR
TOWARD 11-12Z TUE. MOST 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEEP
MIXING-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LAG TO BOOST/ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO MONDAY VALUES OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICKER INCOMING CAA REGIME MAY MAKE
IT HARD TO GET THOSE MILD OF TEMPS...MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. TUE ANOTHER ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PASSING UPPER RIDGE BULGE...AS WELL AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE FRO A MAINLY DRY AND REALLY WARMING WED. THE WARM DRAW
UP ACRS THE CWA ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
70S ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I80. DO NOT BUY THE 12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAY IN INCREASING SOUTH-TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW PATTERN AND BREAKING
OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACRS MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THU...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INCOMING FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF THE
CWA BY 12Z THU. EXTENT OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF THE
GFS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHC AT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WED EVENING IN OR CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
ADVERTISED BY TH 12Z GFS. BUT THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING REGIME AS WELL AS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE EURO SUGGESTS A
MAINLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIP REGIME WEST OF THE MS RVR LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THEN PUSHING ACRS THE
REST OF THE CWA THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE
SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THE FRONT GET GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY BY FRI MORNING THANKS
TO STRENGTH OF INCOMING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR LLVL
RIDGE AXIS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY DRY IF THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LLVL
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TO LEE OF MAIN UPPER L/W TROF
AXIS FRI. THE 12Z GFS DOES RIPPLE A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE
TN VALLEY AND PRODUCES A SECONDARY DEF ZONE OF PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA ON FRI...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW COOL ADVECTING TO POSSIBLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY
AFTERNOON OR EVEN ALL WET SNOW PARAMETERS AND SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THOSE AREAS. AGAIN WITH ONGOING
MODEL BEHAVIOR MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR FRI IN THE SOUTH HALF FOR MAINLY A COOL RAIN. BUT SEEMS THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ARE STARTING TO TAKE OVER AND NEXT FRI MAY BE A
NIL WX DAY. WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY AND COOLING WITH INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS SETTLING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OH RVR/TN
VALLEYS...THE 12Z EURO HAS A GRT LKS CLIPPER FRI NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO THE MILDER SIDE POSSIBLY BY NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS





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