Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 191749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016


Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Surface analysis shows a surface ridge over the Midwest.  Next cold
front extends from South Dakota across Minnesota into the upper
peninsula of Michigan. Aloft, broad west-southwest flow spans the
northern states with a low amplitude trough over the western US.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Generally quiet weather in the short term.  Right entrance region of
the upper jet aligns over our county warning area this afternoon.
This area of broad scale lift combined with proximity of 850mb front
over central Missouri and Illinois supports scattered showers for
southern and eastern parts of the forecast area late this afternoon
into tonight. Rain chance will end overnight as forcing lifts
northeast and reinforcing cold air deepens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

For Thursday, expect dry and cooler conditions in the wake of an
exiting cold front. The surface high pressure ridge will extend
across central/eastern Iowa by 12Z Friday. Conditions will be
ideal for frost formation, especially north, where lows should
settle in the low to mid 30s.

Looking ahead, expect dry conditions with a warming trend Friday
through the weekend. Highs will reach the mid 60s to low 70s by
Sunday. The next chance of rain looks to be Tuesday afternoon and
night, with reasonable consensus between the operational GFS and
ECMWF. Increasing moisture and some modest elevated instability
support added isolated thunder to the forecast grids.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Rounds of VFR level clouds and light north to northeast sfc winds
today and tonight. A low chance for a high based shower to get
into the southern VCNTY of BRL this afternoon and evening but will
leave mention out of the TAF for now. North to northwest sfc winds
will increase to 10+ KTs mid to late Thu morning in in-building
high pressure gradient.    ..12..




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