Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 201110
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
510 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE CWA REMAINS IN FRAGMENTS OF YESTERDAYS STRATUS...WHICH HAS
BROUGHT SEVERAL PERIODS OF CLEAR WEATHER OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS...AND BACK AGAIN. THIS SO FAR HAS KEPT WIND FROM
DECOUPLING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT...THE
OBSERVATIONS AS OF 2 AM SHOW 9 TO 15 ...WHICH SHOULD BE THE RANGE
OUR NORTH HALF BEGINS THE DAY TODAY ONCE THE LATEST AREA OF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT BY 4 OR 5 AM.  THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOCATED
FROM CENTRAL NE TO SOUTHEAST MO EARLY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO
STRADDLE OUR CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF WEST WINDS...BREEZY BUT NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.
WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON MID DAY AS WE MIX TO HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH GUST TO 25 LIKELY. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND UPPER
20S SOUTH.  SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT FLURRIES ARE
MUCH LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY/COLD AIR...AND CALM WINDS AFTER
DARK...WE SHOULD MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE HAVE LOST SNOW
COMPLETE SNOW COVER IN MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY...SO LOCATIONS SHOULD
NOT GO BELOW ZERO OUTSIDE OF SNOW COVERED ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH. LOWS IN THE ZERO TO 10 RANGE ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
BURLINGTON/SE IOWA HIGHWAY 34. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH LITTLE SNOW
COVER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON POWERFUL CYCLONE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER INTENSE STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY TRAVEL. OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS WEEKEND
EVENT BUT I STILL GIVE THE NOD TO THE ECMWF FOR BEING THE MOST
CONSISTENT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
WHICH WILL RETURN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE...IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO MID 30S SOUTH. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS WILL DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR...
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATE IN THE
NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ANY AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
COULD CAUSE SLIPPERY/HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG INTO
THE GRIDS AS THE MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE COLD GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...POWERFUL CYCLONE/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (SATURDAY) TO NORTHERN IL (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
TO LAKE SUPERIOR (MONDAY). THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL BOTH BE DEEPENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD AND IS
PROGGED AT 975 MB AS IT GETS INTO WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM THE COLD AIR IS SCOURED OUT BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND THIS
WILL BE A RAIN-MAKER...WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN
STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS STILL DEPICT A
NICE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF TO THE MIDWEST. IF ANYTHING...
THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH LOOK LIKELY AND AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED THERE MAY BE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER THE
WEEKEND. COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW THEN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT SOME POINT IN THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE VERY
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH SEEM
LIKELY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...
THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COMING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. COLDER WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS EARLY ON MONDAY IN THE 30S THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...WINTER RETURNS AS THE
ECMWF STREAKS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THE
HINT OF ANOTHER POWERFUL CYCLONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MIDWEST
HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CUMULUS BASED AROUND 3500 FT. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10 KTS AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES TO
15-20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN






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