Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 180851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER EASTERN IOWA...WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND
MISSOURI AS OF 2 AM. JUST TO THE EAST AND WEST...STATUS CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND THE DEEP UPPER TROF IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CLEARING
AND WINDS SLIGHTLY LOWERING TO THE 10 MPH RANGE...HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP WITHIN 1 DEGREE OF RECORD LOWS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. THUS...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THIS MORNING WILL GO DOWN
IN THE BOOKS AS A RECORD BREAKER. WIND CHILLS RANGE FROM -5 TO -12
AS OF 2 AM...AND MAY LOWER ABOUT 5 DEGREES FARTHER AS WE HIT OUR
LOWS AROUND 7 AM. CLOUDS MAY SWEEP INTO THE WEST BEFORE 6 AM...AND
IF THAT OCCURS...WIND CHILLS MAY NOT BE AS COLD AS FORECAST
THERE...BUT NONE THE LESS...IT/S PARKA WEATHER OUT THERE...HASHTAG
HEAVY COATS REQUIRED.  AS EXPECTED...THE ARCTIC HIGH IS LOCATED WELL
SOUTH THIS MORNING...NEAR THE ARKLATEX. THIS IS WHY OUR WINDS REMAIN
UP DESPITE THE COLD AIR. IF THE WINDS HAD BEEN CALM OVERNIGHT...THE
AIRMASS COULD HAVE SUPPORTED LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO SINCE WE MEASURED
AN INCREDIBLE -21C AT 850 MB THIS PAST 00Z DVN RAOB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SUBSIDENCE WILL BATTLE THE STATUS FLOWING TOWARDS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO OUR WEST EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AS WE DEVELOP NARROW CLOUD ROLLS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THE MOISTURE LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AS INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LESS.
I WILL LEAVE FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY A
FEW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH...AND AFTER A BRIEF DROP TO
THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING...I EXPECT UPPER TEENS NORTH TO
MID 20S SOUTH TO BE PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE.
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT SATURATION IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS DOWN TO AROUND
HIGHWAY 30 FOR A SHORT WINDOW AROUND 3 AM TO 8 AM...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THUS...I WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH...BUT RATES MAY BE 1/2 PER HOURS
IN THE SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT. SATURATION REMAINS THE MAIN
QUESTION TONIGHT...AND IS THE REASON I REMAIN BELOW CATEGORICAL POP
LEVELS IN THE NORTHEAST. IF MOISTURE IS OVER ESTIMATED BY
MODELS...WHICH IS MY WORRY...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK...THEN A WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND WITH AN INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WILL WALK OUT THE LIGHT SNOW IN NW IL IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD AND WINDY DAY. UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE DVN CWA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER...WEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30 MPH WHICH SHOULD LOWER WIND CHILLS INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...QUIET BUT CONTINUED WELL
BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST
RETURNING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...BUT REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRICKY PART WILL BE THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE ALL LIQUID WHICH INTRODUCES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE NIGHT AND HOW MUCH THE
SURFACE CAN WARM UP WILL BE THE QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL MENTION SMALL
POPS ACROSS THE CWA.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS SEEM TO BE ON-BOARD WITH DEPICTING A DEEPENING
CYCLONE...AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TRACKING
ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF TAKES
THIS LOW TO NEAR CHICAGO WHILE DEEPENING THE LOW TO 978 MB AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWARD UP LAKE MICHIGAN. THE PREVIOUS RUN HAD THE LOW
GOING ACROSS EASTERN IA. THE GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS...THE COLD AIR IS SCOURED OUT AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE A RAINY WEEKEND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
ALSO WINDY. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE AT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 THIS WEEKEND AS THE INTENSE
SYSTEM PULLS WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM COLDER AIR
RETURNS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE ARRIVING TOWARDS THANKSGIVING.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVE SOUTH OF IOWA. WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY. CLOUD TODAY WILL
BECOME SCATTERED BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
BASES OF 2500 TO 3500 FT AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING MAX
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD
DUSK...WITH MID CLOUDS ABOVE 5000 FT CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHWEST BY 12Z/19. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z/19 WITH THIS
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...VISIBILITIES APPEAR MAINLY VFR EXCEPT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THIS WINDOW OF TIME.

ERVIN
&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 18...

MOLINE.........7 IN 1891
CEDAR RAPIDS...5 IN 1891
DUBUQUE........5 IN 1891
BURLINGTON....10 IN 1989

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 18...

MOLINE.........26 IN 1880 /TODAYS FORECAST IS 20.
DUBUQUE........20 IN 1903 /TODAYS FORECAST IS 16.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLIMATE...ERVIN






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