233
FXUS63 KDVN 132335
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
635 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a brief reprieve this weekend, warmer temperatures are
  forecast Monday through Wednesday, before turning more
  seasonal for the latter half of the week.

- There are periodic chances of showers and storms Tuesday
  through Saturday with the best chances (40 - 60%) Wednesday
  afternoon and evening. Severe chances appear low at this time.

- Flooding is occurring or expected to occur on some area
  rivers. Please see the hydrology section below for more
  details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

At 1 PM, a 500 MB trough extends into the area today with a
shortwave lifting northeastward across Missouri into Illinois.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extending northward
into mainly Hancock, McDonough and Warren Counties. 20 to 30
percent chances are forecast to linger across this area through
00 UTC Monday before chances quickly come to en end from west to
east.

This trough and shortwave are forecast to shift to the east
tonight with zonal flow aloft across the region through Monday.
Models show clouds quickly shifting tot he east this evening
with clear skies tonight. Low temperatures should be similar to
last night with temperatures ranging from 62 to 66 degrees from
north to south across the area.

Monday will be quiet but noticeably warmer with light south
winds through the day and mostly sunny skies. This will also
result in dewpoints climbing back to around 70 degrees. High
temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the upper 80s. Heat
indices during the afternoon are forecast to be in the lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The work week forecast continues to have periodic chances of showers
and storms, particularly for mid-week (chances as high as 40-60% for
Wednesday PM). Overall, ensemble guidance suggests zonal flow will
be the norm, depicted well in the 13.00z and 13.12z LREF 500 mb
height cluster analysis. A few mid-level impulses embedded
within the zonal flow will support more active conditions
starting Tuesday. One key feature will be a surface cold front
that is progged to sweep through the Upper Midwest Tuesday into
Wednesday. There remains higher uncertainty on how far south the
front progresses, given differences among the global models.
However, there are some signals for stronger convection possible
on Wednesday along the boundary per the various ML guidance,
although these outputs are fairly muted. The active period could
very well continue into the end of the week as strong upper-
level ridging develops over the southeastern CONUS region, which
could act to stall the frontal boundary over the Corn Belt
region.

Temperatures will warm up slightly for Monday through Wednesday
before the aforementioned cold front approaches, with highs in the
middle to upper 80s each day, gradually cooling off after that.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Residual MVFR CIGS will clear southeast Iowa and west central
Illinois through 03z/14. Toward sunrise HREF/SREF ensembles are
painting a 25-40% probability of MVFR conditions developing
along the Mississippi River into Illinois mainly south of
Interstate 80. Although low, have elected to include a period of
MVFR conditions a few hours either side of sunrise for
KMLI/KBRL. Elsewhere across eastern Iowa the MVFR/IFR conditions
are generally 10% or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

What is new with this issuance? The flood warning for the
English River at Kalona was canceled with the river falling
below flood stage. The flood watch for the Wapsipinicon River at
Anamosa was canceled as the river is forecast to remain below
flood stage. The flood watches for the Mississippi River at
Gladstone and Burlington have been upgraded to warnings. The
flood warnings for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the Iowa at
Marengo remain in effect. There is lower confidence that the
Skunk river at Sigourney will make it to flood stage with the
river level remaining steady since yesterday morning. The flood
watch remains in effect for the Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt.

Rainfall is forecast across the area through Monday night. In
bank rises will continue on area rivers before falling in the
later part of the week.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...Cousins